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Super Bowl 53 Picks and Player Props

I can’t believe the Super Bowl is already here.It’s a bittersweet moment for most, yes this is going to be the most insane football game of the year. But it also means that the football season is soon to be over.

 

And what a season we had this year.

 

A blown call ended up costing the Saints a trip to the Super Bowl and Patrick Mahomes and Co. never even got a shot in overtime. But that’s football for you, so I don’t want to hear any complaining. Because the Rams and the Patriots are both deserving of a title shot this year.

 

The Rams currently hold a 15-3 record including playoffs and they have playmakers all over the field from Jared Goff and Todd Gurley to Aaron Donald and Dante Fowler Jr.

 

The Patriots are no slouches either holding a 13-5 record including playoffs and sporting the same cast of players with one new who has been killing it for this offense. That my friends is Sony Michel, the Georgia product who is having one of the best rookie seasons I have ever seen from a RB.

 

This Super Bowl is poised to be one of the best ever. And here is the headline I was thinking would look nice, “Rams super-team takes on the Patriots Dynasty.” What do you think?

 

I mean it’s true when you look at the Rams roster the first thought is super-team. I’m dead serious go look at the roster it has All-Pro’s at almost every position. And the Patriots with Tom Brady? Oh yea that duo has won five super bowl trophies. Tom is going for good old number six and has no plans of retiring either. Damn.

 

Well, enough talking.

 

It’s time for me to get into the meat and potatoes of this article.

 

 

Pick Against the Spread 

 

I’m sorry but you’re telling me the Patriots are favored in this one? Why? Yes, I understand the motto, “Don’t bet against Brady.” But how about this motto, “The Rams are Really Good.” My gut feeling is that this will be like last year’s super bowl without the halftime comeback. Sure the Patriots have a good running game and they still have a healthy Julian Edelman but that is all I can really say about this group. Gronkowski has been a shell of himself this year and the defense for New England has been anemic giving up way too many points. The Rams have been good this season and their defense is stepping up at the right time, only allowing 23 points to the Saints was impressive and it showed the leadership that Aqib Talib brings to this group. What it also showed how good their run defense can be when they are motivated. Only allowing 46 yards to the duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara is mind-blowing. Look, I am completely underselling the Patriots and overselling the Rams because that is what the stats are telling me. Don’t let Brady get in your head. Rams win the Super Bowl.

 

My Pick LAR (+2.5) Odds = -110 

 

Or LAR (Money Line) Odds = +120 

 

The Total 

 

We’ve got an over/under of 56.5, which is a nice middle ground between the high-flying game like the Patriots had and the defensive battle the Rams had this postseason. The Pats have killed the spread in both of their playoff games this year which has me thinking that the over is the way to go. 69 total points vs the Chargers and then 68 total points vs the Chiefs makes that 56.5 look like child’s play. And that is where the Rams step in. They have been under that 56.5 spread in both of their playoff games which definitely worries you a little. Until you look at who they played and then it all makes sense. The Rams played the Cowboys and the Saints who both fall under that same category of good defenses with offenses that can be shutdown. And that leads to 52 total points in their first game and 49 total points in the next one. So where am I going with this? The Rams average 32.9 PPG this season while the Patriots average 27.3 PPG this season. If averages mean anything they are telling us that this game will be good for at least 60 points.

 

My Pick – Over: (56.5) Odds = -105 

 

Player Prop Bets 

 

Total Touchdown Passes Thrown by Jared Goff – Over: (2.5) Odds = +150 – New England allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 3 TDs as well as Patrick Mahomes. New England has allowed 6 passing TDs in only 2 playoff games.

 

Jared Goff Total Passing Attempts Made – Over: (38.5) Odds = -115 – Jared Goff only threw the ball 28 times vs Dallas because of how well the rushing attack was working. Goff threw the ball 40 times last game vs New Orleans to lead a desperation comeback in the last two minutes. Goff will throw the ball a lot vs New England, trust me.

 

Total Receiving Yards Made by Robert Woods – Over: (72.5) Odds = -115 – Um… yes please. Two poor games so far into the playoffs have led to Woods being undervalued. Only 33 yards last game on 10 targets, chalk it up to way too many screen passes. A more reliable 69 yards in the game before on 6 catches. New England is going to give up at least 100 yards to Woods.

 

Total Pass Receptions Made by Robert Woods – Over: (5.5) Odds = -145 – This feels way too easy to cash on. Woods has had over 5.5 in each of his two playoff games so far and those weren’t even good performances. Watch Woods pile up the catches this Sunday, I expect at least 10 for Woods who is a solid receiver for the Rams.

 

 

Thank you all for reading the Super Bowl LIII Breakdown!

My name is G.R. Bunch aka The Daily Fantasy Hitman.

Follow me on Twitter @DailyHitman

 

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