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Super Bowl 53: Best Bets for MVP

Super Bowl 53: Best Bets for MVP 

 

The Super Bowl is a gold mine for prop bets with everything from length of the National Anthem down to what color gatorade will be poured on the winning coach available for you to bet on. All this week I’m going to break down some of my favorite prop bets that I’m considering and give out some other ones to check out just for fun. We’ve already taken a look a what player prop bets are standing out in the passing, rushing, and receiving games and today we are looking at the best bets to win Super Bowl MVP.

*All Screenshots taken from RotoQL Web-App

**MVP Odds Provided by DraftKings Sports Book

 

Notable MVP Odds as of 2/1:

Tom Brady +110

Jared Goff  +210

Todd Gurley +1100

Aaron Donald +1400

Sony Michel +1600

C.J. Anderson +2200

Julian Edelman +2800

James White +2800

Brandin Cooks +4000

Robert Woods +4000

 

Who I’m Considering 

 

Tom Brady +110

Starting off with the favorite to win MVP we have Tom Brady. While I normally don’t look to take the favorite in bets like these, I’m going to throw a few bucks at Brady in this spot given how well Brady has played in the Super Bowl in his career. Brady has averaged over 430 passing yards per game over his last three Super Bowls and have the added “legacy” benefit. What I mean by that is if the Patriots win the game and it’s a close call between Brady and another Patriots player you have to think that they give the honor to Brady. I can’t see any of his wide receivers (notably Edelman and Gronk) having a huge 100+ yard game with a touchdown or two and Brady not also having a big day against a Rams defense that has no problem giving up yards in-between the 20’s. My biggest prop bet for the game is Brady O299.5 yards so it makes sense to stack that bet with MVP.

 

Todd Gurley +1100

Todd Gurley has been the most popular MVP bet on DraftKings and has seen his odds slashed in half since the lines came out. Sure, Gurley’s workload has been cut by C.J. Anderson, but if (and it’s a big if) he is able to get back to 85-90% of his pre-injury workload and the Rams are able to win the game then you bet that it’s because Gurley had a huge game. 150 total yards and 3 touchdowns is certainly not out of the question for Gurley in this game as Gurley had 6 multi-touchdown games this season and had three 3-TD outings. I wish I had gotten on him at +2200, but there is still some value on his current +1100 line. It should be noted that the last two running backs to win MVP were over 20 years ago, and both (Terrell Davis and Emmitt Smith) had over 130 yards and at least two touchdowns, so it’s going to take a massive game for a running back to take home the honors.

 

James White +2800

The other Patriots’ offensive player that I’m considering for MVP is RB James White. While fellow RB Sony Michel has the better odds at +1600, I can’t really envision Michel having the 120+ yard, multi-touchdown game that would likely be needed for a RB who doesn’t catch passes to win the MVP. White on the other hand is one of the Patriots most trusted pass catchers and we saw how clutch he was in the Patriots comeback win in 2017 against the Falcons. If the Patriots are down late in the game then it’s going to be White who’s the one in the game and he could easily have both rushing and receiving touchdowns. +2800 is nice value here for White in a matchup with a Rams defense that allowed Saints RB Alvin Kamara to catch 11 passes for 96 yards in the NFC Championship.

 

Brandin Cooks +4000

If a wide receiver has any chance at winning the MVP over their quarterback it’s going to take at least 2 huge plays and the player who has the best chance to do that is Rams WR Brandin Cooks. While I like the under on Cooks longest reception prop of 25.5, his MVP odds of +4000 are great value and worth a quarter-unit dart throw. Cooks has also seen his redzone usage rise in the last few games so a multi-touchdown game is definitely in the equation.

 

Marcus Peters +6600

Ok now we get into the deep bombs for MVP and I’m going to start off with Rams CB Marcus Peters. Yes, I know Marcus Peters gets burned virtually every game, and I think that the Patriots know all about his vulnerability in pass coverage and will look to target him every chance they can. However, what Peters does do well is that he’s a gambler and will always go for the interception or direct pass breakup. If Peters can get a key INT and take on back to the house or he has a multi-interception game that directly leads to a Rams win, then he has a great shot at nabbing the MVP — think Malcom Butler in the 2016 Super Bowl. +6600 is worth a shot given how much I expect the Patriots to target Peters in the passing game.

 

LaMarcus Joyner/Devin McCourty +15000 Each 

The +15000 range are just complete shots in the dark but two players who I might put a dollar or two on just for fun are free safeties LaMarcus Joyner and Devin McCourty. It’s going to take either an INT return for a TD or a multi-interception game for either of these players to win but with how often both offenses throw across the middle, both of these players might get the opportunity to do just that.

 

 

 

There’s plenty of strategy that goes into putting together a winning ticket, and the best place to start is the BetQL Mobile App. Our Trending Picks and Public Betting tools are a massive advantage when you’re making bets, regardless of bankroll size. I’m always there to help, too, so check me out on Twitter (@DFSBenj) for even more NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA daily fantasy and sports betting content.

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