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NFL Week 5 Q&A with DFS Professional Aaron White

  • October 5, 2018
  • by admin

Each week, RotoQL will bring you the insights of daily fantasy sports professional Aaron White, who will cover the most important angles of the week, as well as give you many helpful nuggets on how to become a better NFL DFS player. These articles go further than simply picking who to play and you are certain to gain an edge in both your cash game and tournament lineups.

Aaron is a full-time DFS professional. He’s won several large GPP tournaments on both FanDuel and DraftKings and is considered one of the most forward-thinking multi-lineup players in the industry.

He has decided to provide insights to the daily fantasy community to raise the competitive skill level in the industry around topics that DFS enthusiasts will enjoy.

 

Q: Pricing this week is much tighter than previous weeks and it’s a difficult decision on who are the top ‘studs’ to pay up on for the slate. Who are some the high priced players that you are looking at to build your lineups around?

A: The high-priced players that I am most excited to build my lineups around this week are Saquon Barkley, Odell Beckham Jr., and A.J. Green. I expect the field to swarm around other expensive options such as Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon III, Christian McCaffrey, Antonio Brown, and Julio Jones, leaving an ownership advantage for similar studs in worse matchups. Saquon Barkley has been the centerpiece of the Giants’ offense, and should get plenty of carries and targets to work with against a beatable Carolina defense. While he isn’t quite as appealing as the other workhorse RBs in his price range, he is the one that is most likely to go overlooked, and the ownership margin will exceed the slight sacrifice in projection value. Barkley has a ton of
boom potential for a player that is likely to be relatively low-owned. Also on the Giants, Odell Beckham Jr. is going to be passed up in favor of players in games with higher totals or with better matchups. This could be a big mistake. There is no reason why
Beckham Jr. won’t get just as many if not more targets than any other WR on the slate. He has been just quiet enough to start the season to be ignored in a middling matchup, but he has been good enough that I am not concerned. You can grab a huge advantage over the field by taking a risk on Beckham Jr. if he pops off for a big game. There are worse risks to take.

Another locked in number one WR that I expect to go under-owned in Week 5 is A.J. Green. The emergence of Tyler Boyd is pushing people off Green, but a couple good games are not enough for me to be convinced that A.J. Green is no longer Andy Dalton’s go-to target. Green still has 5 TDs this season through 4 games and is seeing plenty of targets. Miami’s defense continues to be overrated despite being completely exposed last week by the Patriots, and the loss of Tyler Eifert should only further solidify Green’s role as the first look in the red zone for the Bengals. With other options looking more appealing at first glance this week, Green could slip under the radar and offer terrific leverage.

 

Q:Contest selection is one of the most underrated aspects in Daily Fantasy Sports. What types of contests would you recommend newer players play to help them have the best long term success?

A: The best way to minimize bankroll volatility in terms of contest selection is to find a solid mix. Blending cash, tournament, high dollar, low dollar, big field and small field contests and the different strategies that go along with them offers different paths for success within the same slate. However, contest selection is really a matter of personal preference. The most important element of contest selection is to make sure your strategy is crafted to your contest. This includes having separate cash vs. GPP strategies, altering your strategy based on the size of the field, finding a way to factor in ownership and more. In general, I would say playing whatever contests you feel excited about and comfortable with is the right way to go.

 

Q: This week features as many games with high projected totals (O/U 47 or higher) as I can remember in quite some time. With so many teams in excellent spots, where are you trying to key in on for your team and/or game stacks?

A: The teams I am keying in on for passing stacks this week are the Packers, Raiders, and the Broncos. These stacks are going undervalued and could lead to a GPP win. Despite the flurry of injuries to the Packers WRs, I still expect Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game to find success in Detroit. This matchup is about as good as it gets, and Rodgers is an elite QB even with his lingering knee issue. If Davante Adams plays, he is my favorite target to pair with Rodgers. I like Jimmy Graham too, especially considering that he appears to be the healthiest pass-catcher for the Packers. Ty Montgomery may eat up some extra targets out of the backfield given all the WR injuries and isn’t a bad option, and I don’t mind taking a shot at Marquez Valdes-Scantling for cheap. Rodgers is likely to make some noise in Detroit with muted ownership due to injuries to his supporting cast, and you should feel confident using him with whichever pass-catchers are active.

The Raiders passing game should be forced into action against the Chargers. Oakland’s defense has been terrible and the Chargers have had no issues putting up points, likely leaving Derek Carr and company to play from behind. Considering the matchup isn’t overwhelming, I like targeting the game flow angle here. Amari Cooper is way underpriced and is going to be under-owned. He’s coming off a big game and should see plenty of targets. Along with Cooper, Jared Cook should be heavily targeted and is also yet to see a significant enough price increase given his performance this season. Both are top options to pair with Derek Carr. If you want to dig deeper, Jordy Nelson is a solid cheap WR to stack with Carr, and even Martavis Bryant has the upside to surprise at near minimum salary. The Raiders should have to pass and they should be able to score, but they aren’t getting much attention. Case Keenum and the Broncos passing game have been bad recently. However, this passing stack is getting entirely overlooked, and it offers some legitimate thump. While the Jets defense has been reasonable so far, I don’t see them as an unbeatable matchup. A stack that contains Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas has too much upside to be ignored. It’s easy to forget just how good this trio was in Week 1 against Seattle. Denver’s passing attack has been struggling but they have the talent to come back, and Keenum has shown both this and last season that he is capable of putting up big games. I would focus on Sanders and Thomas here, and using one or both make a strong extremely low-owned stack with Keenum. Stacking the Broncos is a high-risk move, but it could result in a monster reward.

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