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NFL Week 14 Value Report

  • December 4, 2018
  • by admin

Mr. Butt Fumble is back!

Mark Sanchez finessed his way into another starting QB job and this time it’s for the Redskins.

Not sure what they saw in him because he hasn’t started a game since 2015 and he has thrown more interceptions (87) than touchdowns (86) during his 8-year career.

Sanchez is someone you will never want to even think about playing in fantasy.

But hey I guess it is cool to see a guy like Sanchez getting another opportunity to show if he still has any talent left to be an NFL QB. Why don’t we give Johnny Football another chance too?

(The guy I really want to see get a shot is James Wilder Jr.)

Anyways, it’s time to get down to the value section of this article where I pick my favorite three value games and go off about who’s going to go off. Got it?

 

Value Pick #1: NYJ (17.5) @ BUF (21.0) – O/U: 38.5

Alright time for the Jets vs the Bills which will probably one of the best games of the week! Okay I am obviously kidding but hey just because both teams have terrible records doesn’t mean that we can’t snag a ton of value from this game. On the Jets side we have a QB situation that is looking very suspect right now. Sam Darnold is likely going to be limited in practice again with a foot injury, but he is actually getting close to a return. This would mean the world for his WRs who have taken a huge hit in value since Josh McCown took over at QB. The two main guys who would get a bump in value with a return from Darnold are Quincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson. Enunwa is your possession receiver and Anderson is the deep ball threat. Buffalo’s defense is ranked 3rd in DVP vs WR and 5th in DVP vs TE which makes me think that playing any WR from the NYJ is a mistake. But hey we can still consider rocking with our guy Isaiah Crowell who just had his highest touch total of the entire season. The Jets finally realized that their best offensive move is to simply hand the ball off to Crowell 20+ times and watch him run. I like the price point for Crowell making him a legitimate value play coming out of New York.

 

On the other side we got the Buffalo Bills who will be led by Josh Allen. I really like what Allen has been doing on the ground as a runner with 22 carries for 234 yards and 1 TD over his last 2 games. Combine that with 391 yards passing with 3 TDs and 2 INTs and you start to see the picture. Allen has averaged 30.02 Fpts over his last 2 games which is good for a plus/minus of +15.1. And this is versus Miami and Jacksonville who have much better defenses than the Jets. Allen doesn’t really have a favorite target though, I mean Zay Jones had a big day last week with 2 TDs but the week before he had only 1 target and 0 catches. That same week where Zay Jones had 0 catches, Robert Foster had 2 catches for 94 yards and 1 TD. And during both of those games Isaiah McKenzie has been consistently involved which makes me think maybe this is his week to ball out. McKenzie also officially passed up Kelvin Benjamin in offensive snap count which further solidifies his value on this team. Benjamin’s value has been dead for a while now. Charley Clay is not someone you should think about playing either. Finally, we have the crème de la crème or LeSean McCoy. He is the best player on this team by a longshot and he had his best game so far this season vs the Jets in Week 10. Can you say repeat? McCoy has received 37 touches over his last 2 games showing he is still heavily involved in the game plan even though Josh Allen is getting way more rushing yards. I say start McCoy, Josh Allen and if you are really feeling risky Isaiah McKenzie.

 

Value Pick #2: DEN (24.8) @ SF (19.3) – O/U: 44

Case Keenum is having a tough time finding the endzone with only 4 touchdown passes in his last 4 games. And that meant my sleeper pick Matt LaCosse ended up with a cool 0 catches for 0 yards and basically ruined my fantasy day. But that is my fault, I put too much faith into Keenum’s arm. Bad call. Denver is getting a cake matchup vs the 49ers who are currently tanking for draft picks. And I’m hyped that I traded for Phillip Lindsay in my fantasy league. You see this guy? Literally running away with the starting job. Haha get it because he is a running back? Oh man I am too good… Anyways, 5 TD and 346 yards rushing over his last 3 games is nothing to scoff at. That’s a plus/minus of +14.6 for Lindsay who is absolutely scorching hot right now. Now the only other guy I feel comfortable writing about would be Courtland Sutton because of his status as a young player and Denver trying to get him more involved in the offense. Sutton produced very well last week vs the Bengals to the tune of 4 catches for 85 yards and 1 TD. Sutton actually had 1 more target (7) than Emmanuel Sanders. The 49ers rank 23rd in DVP vs WRs and 19th in DVP vs RBs. I want Lindsay and Sutton from Denver.

 

Then we move over to San Francisco which is almost the true definition of value players right now. They have a 3rd string QB starting, 4th string WR starting, and a 4th or 5th string RB starting. What could go wrong? Well apparently everything because they lost to Seattle by a score of 41-16. But hey this didn’t stop Nick Mullens from posting his best fantasy game of the year along with Dante Pettis and Jeff Wilson Jr. But things will get a slight bit confusing with the return of Marquise Goodwin, I suppose Dante Pettis will probably take a slight hit in value. But I still think Pettis starts opposite Goodwin for the 49ers this Sunday. Pettis produced his best game as a 49er with 5 catches for 129 yards and 2 TDs. I think Pettis will have another huge day if the San Francisco defense plays like ass again. Matt Breida has been ruled OUT for this game with an ankle injury which means Jeff Wilson Jr. will get the start at RB. The 49ers have literally no one left in that backfield so look for Wilson Jr. to get pretty much all of the touches and potentially a huge fantasy day. Denver’s defense is really good but so is Jeff Wilson Jr. at catching passes out of the backfield. Last week he had 8 catches for 73 yards along with 15 carries for 61 yards. Basically I don’t care about Denver’s defense, I see a lot of value in Pettis and Jeff Wilson Jr. and I want to start them this Sunday.

 

Value Pick of the Week: ATL (21.5) @ GB (27.0) – O/U: 48.5

Don’t look now but the Falcons have lost 4 straight and are basically out of the playoff picture entirely this season. I am seeing a story on ESPN about if the Falcons should sit Matt Ryan, that is how you know it’s been a bad season. Well Atlanta still has a very talented offense, but this struggling offensive line (48 sacks) has caused to underperform literally 4 weeks in a row. They haven’t even scored 20 points in a game since Week 9 vs the Redskins which is very uncharacteristic for an Atlanta offense. Well all of this turmoil has caused Matt Ryan’s price tag to slip down to the lowest it has been all season. Green Bay’s defense is still pretty good, but I think this week Matt Ryan will get back to his old ways and throw for at least 3 TDs this week. Most of his passes are going to be thrown to Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley who seem to be leading the Atlanta WR core at this time. Jones is as consistent as they come with 6-straight 20+ Fpt games before his stinker last week vs BAL. 8 targets and only 2 catches shows us that Baltimore obviously had a game plan to make sure Jones was well covered at all times. Green Bay simply doesn’t have the defensive talent to keep up with Jones, he should have a field day this Sunday. Ridley on the other hand is a lot riskier. Earlier in the year Ridley had a span of 6 TD catches in 3 games but since then he has cooled off significantly with only 1 TD catch in his last 4 games. Then we have the RB situation which is not good for either part of the duo squad. Tevin Coleman is supposed to be the lead back, but he has only seen a whopping total of 34 yards from scrimmage on 18 touches over his last 2 games. The other guy Ito Smith has been even worse with only 29 yards from scrimmage on 14 touches. So, I guess the RB position is just kind of a lost cause for the Falcons. Finally, we got the TE Austin Hooper who put up a really nice game vs BAL last week with 5 catches for 44 yards and 1 TD. Green Bay ranks 3rd in the NFL in DVP vs TEs which makes me think otherwise about playing Hooper. I am sticking to my guns and going Julio Jones and maybe Matt Ryan if you prefer him over Josh Allen.

 

Bye bye Mike McCarthy. Packers let Mike go after their third straight loss which basically sealed the deal on no playoffs this year. So, time to rebuild. Hey, at least they still have Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham right? This team is stacked at every position and could probably beat any team in the NFL given the right setting. But it just didn’t work out for them this year and one of the main reasons I think was their lack of a solid running game. You have Aaron Jones back their who is one of the most athletically talented backs in the NFL and you refuse to give him over 20 carries. I don’t get it when teams do this. Stop trying to work Jamaal Williams in because all he is doing is ruining the entire flow of the offense. With McCarthy being fired and the Packers being essentially out of playoffs I think this is the time for Jones to see a lot of carries. Then we have to talk about Davante Adams who has a lot of TD catches (11) and a lot of yards (1,115). I think Adams is one of the best WR in the NFL and a lot of this has to do with who is throwing him the passes. Rodgers trusts Adams to catch anything and thus throws to him the most of any guy on the team. 40 targets over his last 4 games, 4 TDs over his last 4 games, 385 yards over his last 4 games. I love what Adams is doing and hate what all of the other WRs (Cobb, MVS, ESB) on this team are doing. I am rocking with Aaron Jones and Davante Adams from the Pack Attack.

 

Thank you all for reading another edition of the NFL Value Report!

 

My name is G.R. Bunch aka The DFS Hitman.

Follow me on Twitter @DailyHitman

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