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NFL Week 13 Q&A with DFS Professional Aaron White

  • November 30, 2018
  • by admin

Each week, RotoQL will bring you the insights of daily fantasy sports professional Aaron White, who will cover the most important angles of the week, as well as give you many helpful nuggets on how to become a better NFL DFS player. These articles go further than simply picking who to play and you are certain to gain an edge in both your cash game and tournament lineups.

Aaron is a full-time DFS professional. He’s won several large GPP tournaments on both FanDuel and DraftKings and is considered one of the most forward-thinking multi-lineup players in the industry.

He has decided to provide insights to the daily fantasy community to raise the competitive skill level in the industry around topics that DFS enthusiasts will enjoy.

 

Q: Week 13 features a full set of 13 games that is loaded with great options at seemingly every position. Is there anything that you do differently on these full 13-game main slates knowing that ownership is going to be spread more thin than the 10 and 11 game slates that we’ve been seeing; especially at a stacked running back position.

 

A: Ownership will naturally take more of a backseat on larger slates due to more spread player popularity, but my process remains the same. While I believe it is crucial to be willing to adapt and change your approach, I also think having a general framework to fall back on is helpful in order to produce a repeatable winning process.

 

Regardless of the slate size, I always balance projections with ownership, attempting to find an optimal balance between the two. On this slate, I may ultimately have more exposure to a player such as Christian McCaffrey because of the ownership he will lose to similar options like Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt. However, the process by which McCaffrey will end up in my lineups will be the same as any other week.

 

Q: There are so many great stacking options this week it’s hard to know where to begin. Are you looking to the high implied team totals such as the Chiefs, Rams, or Panthers? Or is there enough leverage to be had to target some of the lower totaled teams who are also in great spots, such as the Patriots, Buccaneers and Packers.

 

A: One of the teams I am most interested in stacking this week is the Seahawks. This is a team with monstrous stacking upside that is going overlooked due to the wealth of other options available on this slate. Russell Wilson has shown that he can still do plenty of damage both with his arm and legs, making him one of the most dangerous QBs on the slate in an outstanding matchup. Pairing him with any of the Seahawks’ top three WRs – Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin, or David Moore – is a viable strategy. Lockett and Moore have produced more recently, but Baldwin can easily jump back into his role as Wilson’s go-to receiver at any moment. A mix-and-match approach with these receivers and Wilson is likely the best way to go, with all three being strong contrarian options. Don’t forget about the Seahawks this week like the rest of the field.

 

The next team I am excited about is the Ravens. Although Lamar Jackson hasn’t thrown much in the last couple of weeks, he has flashed his upside by running with a ton of success. This week’s matchup is as good as it gets, and I think Jackson will finally have to throw against a Falcons team that will put up points at home on Baltimore’s regressing defense. Along with Jackson’s upside, the dirt-cheap prices of his WRs make this stack appealing. As with Seattle’s WRs, I would mix-and-match with Michael Crabtree, John Brown, and Willie Snead. Any of the three could turn out to be Jackson’s top target on Sunday, and it’s rare to get a number one receiver against the worst defense in the league for $4400 or less. Stacking the Ravens is a risky move, but a move that carries a high ceiling and should afford you some studs at other positions.

 

The last team that has my attention this week is also playing in Atlanta. While the Falcons appear to have a rough matchup, the Ravens have been giving up 24.2 PPG since Week 7 – not so good. The reputation of Baltimore’s defense is not enough to keep me from stacking Matt Ryan with Julio Jones at home in the dome this week. Playing Julio Jones is an excellent way to use an elite player at decreased ownership this week despite being in a fairly good position to succeed. Tevin Coleman, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu, and Austin Hooper all work in a Falcons stack as well, but I would focus most of my attention on Jones, potentially using a secondary option in addition to Jones instead of in his place. This game has excellent under-the-radar shootout potential and is a strong contrarian stacking target.

 

Q: There are a few cheap pass catching options that while being great plays, will also likely be extremely popular (Bruce Ellington, Adam Humphries, Eric Ebron). Is eating the chalk with these players a good strategy this week, or should players look to fade these cheap pass catchers who typically have high variance outcomes.  

 

A: As I have mentioned in the past, volatility is magnified among cheaper WRs. These players are often stepping into new roles, on unsustainable hot streaks, or are low on the depth chart. These factors feed volatility and while that can sometimes be desirable in GPPs, I often think there are plenty of alternatives available with equal price and upside and far lower ownership. Essentially, if I am going to take a risk on a player, I would like that risk to pay off for me if it goes well, and I see players like Bruce Ellington and Adam Humphries as huge risks that won’t even pay off at their ownership should they succeed.

 

For example, I am far more interested in playing lineups with the Baltimore WRs than Humphries this week. Humphries remains one of four viable receivers for the Buccaneers, and I think there is a strong chance that one of the Baltimore WRs finishes with more points. Although Bruce Ellington’s price is extremely low, I think even a player like Robby Anderson at a fraction of the ownership is more appealing. Anderson has a much lower floor, but arguably carries more upside and could easily blow Ellington away with one long TD.

 

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