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NFL Playoffs – Divisional Round Prop Bets

 

NFL Playoffs Divisional Prop Bets

 

The prop betting market can be one of the most inefficient aspects in sports betting and sharp players can gain a huge edge by digging into the various player props that your sports book may offer. Player props are a perfect intersection between Daily Fantasy Sports and traditional Sports Betting, and the RotoQL team has you covered through both our long standing RotoQL web-app, which provides in-depth historical and trends on each each, as well as our BetQL app, which provides you with up to the minute lines, line movement, betting trends, sharp money reports, and much more.

 

There’s plenty of strategy that goes into putting together a winning ticket, and the best place to start is the BetQL Mobile App. Our Trending Picks and Public Betting tools are a massive advantage when you’re making bets, regardless of bankroll size. I’m always there to help, too, so check me out on Twitter (@DFSBenj) for even more NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA daily fantasy and sports betting content.

 

*Lines provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

**Images from the RotoQL Web-App and BetQL Mobile-App

 

Quarterback

 

Jared Goff Over 277.5 passing yards (-115)

Jared Goff has been a tail of two quarterbacks when he plays at home versus the road this season and I love him to go over his 277.5 yard passing prop as they Rams take on the Cowboys in LA. How good has Goff been at home this season? Well he averaged over 12 more DraftKings points per game at home in Los Angeles and threw for over 295 yards in 7 of 8 games in the Los Angeles Coliseum. I suspect that many will be weary of betting on Goff given the matchup with a surging Cowboys defense, however it should be noted that Dallas has allowed 290 or more passing yards to opposing quarterbacks in 4 of their last 6 games on the road this season.

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Drew Brees Over 287.5 passing yards (-115)

Similar to Jared Goff, we should be looking to target Saints QB Drew Brees’ passing yardage prop of 287.5 passing yards. Brees has been equally dominate as Goff has been at home this season, exceeding 300 passing yards in 6 of 8 games this season in the Superdome — which included a 346 yard, 4 touchdown performance against Philadelphia back in week 11. The Eagles defensive secondary is by far their biggest weakness as they rank 30th DvP against WRs, and 26th DvP against opposing quarterbacks.

 

Dak Prescott Under 18.5 rushing yards (-115)

The Cowboys head into their matchup with the Rams as 7-point road underdogs, and while I’m tempted to take the Cowboys with the points, I think that if they are able keep this game close it with be through Ezekiel Elliott and a short passing attacking. Dak Prescott is known for his mobility, but has failed to top his current rushing prop line of 18.5 yards in 8 of the last 10 games. If you want to hop on Prescott’s rushing mobility, I would look toward either first/last TD at +1500 given Prescott’s 7 rushing touchdowns this season.

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Running Back

 

Ezekiel Elliott Over 5.5 receptions (+120)

The Cowboys are likely going to need to pass the pass down the stretch to keep up with the Rams as 7-point road underdogs and with both TE Blake Jarwin and slot WR Cole Beasley extremely questionable to play, we may see the Cowboys look to ride Ezekiel Elliott in both the screen and short passing game. His total reception line of 5.5 receptions is plus money at +120, which seems almost too good to be true after Elliott caught 6 or more passes in 5 of the last 6 games Dallas came in as an underdog this season. We can confidently project that at minimum the passing volume will be there for Elliott as well, with him seeing 6 or more targets in every road game since week 3 of the regular season.

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Nyheim Hines Over 39.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-115)

Nyheim Hines was a huge disappointment from a fantasy perspective last week against the Texans, but is in a much better spot to hit his modest 39.5 rushing+receiving prop this weekend against the Chiefs. Hines was virtually written out of the Colts game plan after they got up big against the Texans — leading to a huge workload for between the tackles runner Marlon Mack. The Colts are extremely unlikely to get up early on the Chiefs as 5.5-point road underdogs to the top-seeded Chiefs and if the get down multiple scores you can expect Hines to be the running back in the game. Hines exceeded 39.5 all-purpose yards for the Colts in 10 of 16 games during the regular season.

 

Pass Catchers

 

Eric Ebron to Score at least 2 Touchdowns (+550)

I’m not a huge fan of ever taking a player prop “to score at least 2 touchdowns”, but this week I think there’s some value on Eric Ebron to get into the endzone twice at +550. Ebron had a breakout season with the Colts, leading the NFL in touchdowns by a tight end with 14 scores — including three multi-score outings. Ebron has an amazing individual matchup against the Chiefs who rank dead last DvP against opposing tight ends. There is a good chance that the Colts get up early in the matchup and force QB Andrew Luck to throw for upwards of 40 attempts, which in turn gives Ebron some huge upside.

 

James White Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

James White looked like an all-pro running back when he was seeing elite volume being the only healthy back in Patriots offense throughout the meat of the season. However, White’s snap share and touches have tanked following the returns of Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead — White hasn’t exceed 42% of snaps since week 13. White is certainly going to be apart of the Patriots game plan against a tough Chargers defense, but unless he breaks a big play it’s hard to see him getting over his 42.5 receiving yardage prop. White exceeded 42 receiving yards in only 1 of the Patriots final 7 games, and had a team target share less than 20% in 5 of those 7 outings.

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Ted Ginn Jr. Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Ted Ginn Jr. is getting a lot of hype in the DFS community this week and I absolutely love him to go over his modest 49.5 receiving yards prop. Ginn returned from injury in week 16 for the Saints, where he caught 5 balls for 74 yards before being rested for the Saints week 17 matchup. Historically Ginn has consistently smashed this 49.5 number at home, having going over 50 yards receiving in 9 of his last 10 games played in the Superdome. If that wasn’t enough, Ginn has the perfect matchup against the Eagles who rank 30th DvP against opposing wide receivers, and look especially vulnerable to deep balls — something we all know the speedster Ginn excels at.

 

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