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Burns’ Best Bets – NFL Playoffs Divisional Round

Wild Card weekend turned out to be a huge success as we cruised to a 3-0 week and our fifth consecutive winning weekend. The Chargers and Eagles who were both underdogs were outright winners, and the Indianapolis and Houston game went under the total of 48 points with ease. Before we turn the page to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, let’s take one final look at last week’s results.

 

Indianapolis vs Houston- Under 48 Points- W

Los Angeles Chargers +3 over Baltimore- W

Philadelphia + 6 over Chicago- W

 

Best Bets for the NFL Divisional Round

 

Indianapolis Colts + 5.5 ( 9-7-1 ATS ) vs. Kansas City Chiefs ( 9-6-1 ATS )

 

The Colts are flying high after a great win last week in Houston where they dominated the Texans from start to finish. Indianapolis has won 10 out of their last 11 games after starting the season 1-5. The Chiefs are the number one seed in the AFC and are well rested after having a bye last week. Kansas City averages 35 points a game and has the favorite to win the MVP in quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Indianapolis is 7-3-1 ATS in their past 11 games and 13-3 SU in their past 16 games against Kansas City. The Chiefs are 16-5 SU over their last 21 games, but only 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven games. Both teams have explosive offenses, but the Colts have the better defense and I think that will be the key. I’m taking the Colts, and the points and I wouldn’t be surprised if they win straight up and bounce Kansas City from the playoffs.

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Dallas Cowboys + 7 ( 9-7-1 ATS ) vs. Los Angeles Rams ( 7-7-2 ATS )

 

The Cowboys beat Seattle in a hard fought game in the Wild Card round to advance to face the Rams in LA. The Rams are 7-1 at home and had the second highest scoring offense in football this year. Todd Gurley who has missed the last two games with a knee injury is sure to be in the lineup, but it’s tough to predict how his knee will hold up Saturday night. He is the best player on the Rams offense and is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.

Dallas won the NFC East due to a great running attack and a young and athletic defense that performed at a high level all season long. The Cowboys are 4-2 SU in the last six games against Los Angeles and 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine games overall. The Rams are 13-3 SU this year but only 1-3-2 ATS in their last six home games. The Cowboys game plan will be to run the ball with Ezekiel Elliott and win the time of possession battle. I favor the Rams to win, but Dallas will give them all they can handle. I like Dallas and the points.

 

Los Angeles Chargers ( 10-7 ATS ) vs. New England Patriots ( 9-7 ATS ) – Under 47.5 Points

 

The Chargers head to Foxborough to face the Patriots in the early game on Sunday afternoon. New England is favored by four and historically have been great in the divisional round playing at home. Los Angeles has the better overall roster and they are 8-1 overall on the road this season. I couldn’t decide on a side in this matchup, and after looking at the data a little closer I feel the best play is taking the under in this game.

The under has hit in eight of the Patriots last nine games and the total has gone under in four out of the Chargers past six road games. Both teams have a top ten scoring defense on the season, and New England is lacking a deep threat with the absence of Josh Gordon. When you also consider the weather forecast, which shows temperatures in the 20’s with the possibility of wintry conditions, I’m locking in the under 47.5 total points.

 

Philadelphia Eagles + 8 ( 7-9-1 ATS vs. New Orleans Saints ( 10-6 ATS )

 

Nick Foles and the Eagles had another huge win last Sunday in Chicago as they slipped by the Bears on a missed field goal by Chicago kicker Cody Parkey. The spotlight is on Nick Foles, and he and the defense deserve a ton of credit for the recent Eagles run. In week 17 they were able to shutout Washington, and last week they only gave up 15 points to the Bears. Drew Brees leads an high powered Saints offense that averages over 31 points per game, and they’re the number one seed in the NFC with a huge home field advantage playing in the Superdome.

Ironically the last time New Orleans lost a home playoff game was in 1992 when they lost to an Eagles squad led by Randall Cunningham and Reggie White. The Eagles are 6-1 SU over their past seven games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven away games. The Saints are 14-2 SU in their last 16 homes games, but only 1-5 ATS over their past six games. These teams played earlier this season and New Orleans won in dominate fashion by the score of 48-7. This game will no doubt be a more competitive game.

The Philadelphia defense and mainly their front seven are finally healthy and should be able to at least contain the Saints potent rushing attack. On the other side of the ball, Nick Foles should be able to make plays against a New Orleans defense that is ranked 29th in the NFL against the pass. I’m not betting against Nick Foles and feel the Eagles are catching too many points in this game. I’m rolling with Philly and feel they have an outside shot to spring another playoff upset.

If you like our analysis and want to place a wager on the Eagles make sure to check out PAfreebets.com where you can find all the info you need about sports betting in the state of Pennsylvania. If you are located in the Philadelphia are we would recommend checking our their Parx sportsbook review where you can find sportsbook ratings and Parx Sportsbook promos. Good luck betting!

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Shawn Burns is one of the newest content writers for BetQL. As a former staffer for the Jacksonville Jaguars and Director of Football Relations at Florida International University, Burns brings a new perspective and unique handicapping techniques to our readers. You can follow Shawn on Twitter @sburns4597

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