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NFL Divisional Round DFS Rundown

This week’s divisional round of the playoffs looks to be one of the best in a while.

 

We get IND @ KC to start off Saturday.

 

Then we get DAL @ LAR on Saturday night.

 

On Sunday we get LAC @ NE for the early game.

 

And PHI @ NO will be the final game of the playoff weekend.

 

We have the Top 5 scoring offenses playing this Weekend (KC, LAR, NO, NE, IND)

 

We have no Top 5 scoring defenses playing.

 

Say goodbye to good defense because we are going to get some high scoring games this Weekend.

 

Last week I was 3-1 in my picks with the lone dud being my pick of BAL > LAC. This week I will do the same thing and list my picks below each game.

 

So without further ado, let’s get into the DFS Rundown for this Weekend’s Divisional Round of Playoffs.

 

Divisional Round #1: IND (25.8) @ KC (31.3) – O/U: 57.0

 

Andrew Luck and the Colts are playing out of their minds right now. They just destroyed the Texans in their own house by a score of 21-7 and now they are looking towards KC as their next victim. Of course it wouldn’t be true Colts style if they didn’t throw a Questionable tag on every player I want to play, so Dontrelle Inman, T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron all have the lovely Q next to their name. But you know who doesn’t have one? Marlon Mack. And you know who’s rushed for over 100 yards in three of his last four games? Uhhh Marlon Mack. It has been obvious when watching the Colts last few games that their goal is to wear down the opposing defense by running the ball a lot. This has led to 54 touches for Marlon Mack over his last two games, which is something I can get behind. 20+ fantasy points for Mack in consecutive weeks and he is still underpriced.

 

I love the matchup too as KC is ranked 30th in DVP vs RBs. But of course this offense is not one-dimensional at all. Andrew Luck has unloaded 5 TD passes in his last two games but none of them have been to T.Y. Hilton which is disappointing. Hilton has been dealing with an ankle and I am starting to think it may be still nagging him. 7 catches on 16 targets with 0 TDs is not something I can get behind. But wait, what about his partner in crime Dontrelle Inman? Oh yea he is obviously a play and a half with the likely high scoring nature of this game. Now look at these stats: 13 catches on 15 targets with 3 TDs. Okay Inman’s stats are over his last 3 and T.Y.’s are over his last 2 but you get the picture right? Inman is a lower priced player who has just as much potential as T.Y. and he allows your lineup to be more flexible. Finally, I need to mention Eric Ebron as he is the TD leader on this team with 14 already in his first season as a colt. I don’t love his price and would probably rather go with someone like Kelce or Ertz if I am going to pay up for TE. He does have a TD catch in consecutive weeks though and could be a nice play as Kansas City’s Defense is ranked 32nd in DVP vs TEs.

 

On the other side of the ball we have the NFL’s #1 Scoring Offense with a massive 35.3 PPG. And they might get Sammy Watkins & Spencer Ware back this week after they both missed extensive time with injuries. If Ware plays this Saturday I expect him to be relegated to passing downs as Damien Williams has proven himself to be a feature back in this league. Tyreek Hill is still this team’s top pass catcher along with Travis Kelce, but after these two guys it is a heavy drop-off. No way I want to touch Chris Conley or Demarcus Robinson and it is mainly because of their low offensive involvement. Now I am pretty sure that Travis Kelce is the most expensive TE on this entire slate, but he is for a reason. He has nine targets in four consecutive games which shows that he is probably Patrick Mahomes favorite target. And he has three multi-TD games this season which means his ceiling is through the roof. Oh, and the Colt’s Defense is ranked 29th in DVP vs TEs which spells success for Kelce this Saturday. But Tyreek Hill is the guy I am most excited for even though the Colt’s Defense is rocking a very good DVP vs WRs. The reason I am so excited for Hill this Weekend is because of two things: 1) His price is cheaper than usual, 2) He has three games this year where he has scored over 40 fantasy points. Don’t overlook Hill this week. Then we’ve got Patrick Mahomes who is the best QB in the NFL right now and he is priced like it. Mahomes has the potential for a 6-TD game at any moment but against this Colts Defense, which is one of the best surprises of the year, I would say it might be more like 3-4 TDs for Mahomes.

 

Final Verdict: IND 37 – KC 43

 

Divisional Round #2: DAL (21.3) @ LAR (28.3) – O/U: 49.5

 

Dallas is dealing with injuries at the wrong time and unfortunately I think it might cost them this week. Cole Beasley, Noah Brown and Blake Jarwin picked up Questionable tags after last week’s matchup with SEA. Beasley and Jarwin are dealing ankle injuries so I would say take them completely off the radar because ankle injuries with receivers is a no go. This leaves us with Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Prescott is a player I can get behind this week mainly because of the work he can do with his legs. Dak has rushed for 7 TDs this year and 2 of those have been in the last 3 weeks when the games have really mattered. Love his price as he is the cheapest QB on the slate.

 

Next up is Ezekiel Elliott who is basically the entire Dallas Offense all packed into one man. Elliott ran off with 30 touches last week vs SEA and was 0.1 points shy of a 30-point fantasy day. Everyone is going to roster him, but I mean how do you not? He is the highest priced RB though, so I say fade him. Finally we have Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup who will be on opposite sides of the field and sharing all of the targets from Prescott. Cooper is the higher priced and more exciting option, but Gallup had a TD last week which makes things interesting. Cooper did have 7 catches for 106 yards and seemed visibly frustrated when Dak Prescott targeted Noah Brown instead of Cooper on a pass that was eventually intercepted. This means he is hungry, and he wants the ball in his hands to make a play. Cooper all the way for me, Gallup just doesn’t do enough unless you are thinking about him being a sleeper.

 

On the other side of the ball we have the Jared Goff led LA Rams. The only problem is that Jared Goff hasn’t been doing much leading, instead he has been throwing a crap ton of interceptions. And I mean a crap ton. Seven interceptions compared to only one touchdown during Week’s 13-15 which included matchups vs. CHI, DET & PHI. Goff has been off, and this is not a situation I would touch with a 10-ft pole. Dallas has the 6th Ranked Scoring Defense in the NFL and they will give Jared Goff problems this weekend. This means I am not even thinking about playing Josh Reynolds, or Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods or Todd Gurley or C.J. Anderson or any of the trash TEs they are throwing out there. I know, I am sounding like someone who lost their wife to a Rams player but honestly no. I just know when to avoid a situation and this is one of them. The Rams have been pretending all year in the worst division in the NFL, and this week they will meet their makers, and they are Cowboys.

 

Final Verdict – DAL 23 – LAR 20

 

Divisional Round #3: LAC (21.5) @ NE (25.5) – O/U: 47.0

 

Philly Rivers is Hall-Of-Fame QB and he is going to let the world know this Sunday. The Patriot’s defense is absolute trash and I think Phillip will have no problem picking them apart. Keenan Allen was his top target vs BAL and I expect a lot of the same this week. Allen has been the most consistent WR on this team but his last few games have not been pretty. Two of these games were vs BAL and one was a game that didn’t matter vs DEN. So chalk up his poor performances to really good defense and be happy that his price dropped for us like a lot. Mike Williams is the de facto number two and he has been doing well in that role as of late. A huge game vs KC in Week 15, and then a solid game in DEN to finish out the season. Williams isn’t giving us a whole lot to work off of, but he did see 6 targets last week and scored a 2-PT conversion which counts for something. We also have a couple TEs in Antonio Gates (NO) and Hunter Henry (Super NO) but I can’t see myself owning either of them.

 

Finally we have the RB situation which is Austin Ekeler coming in on 3rd down and Melvin Gordon gutting through a big-time knee injury. I mean did you see that brace he is wearing just to play? Dude is insane, but I worry about rostering him because of the limitations it was putting on his speed and agility. The Ravens Defense is also really good, but I say fade Gordon just like last week. I like Phillip, Allen and Williams from the Chargers this Sunday.

 

So, what about New England? Well they are still good, I am just not extremely fond of how they decided to end out the season. Oh yea they beat up on the Jets and the Bills which means absolutely nothing and before that they lost to the Steelers and the Dolphins in two games that have you wondering what happened to the Patriots. Well remember they lost Josh Gordon to another substance abuse whatever and this means their WR core took a big hit. They still have Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan but honestly they are both undersized and more relevant out of the slot. This leaves the Patriots with Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson to pick up the slack on the outside WR position and honestly I hate that idea. Lets just be honest for one second, this Patriots WR core may be the worst in the entire playoffs by far and that worries me. And this Chargers defense they are facing is no joke. They are 8th in the NFL in Scoring Defense and put the clamps down on the Ravens last week.

 

But wait, I still haven’t even mentioned James White, Sony Michel and Rob Gronkowski and they are all good players. Gronkowski has been playing terrible all year but lets just chalk that up to him probably playing through a multitude of injuries this season. A week of rest will do him really good, but I don’t think that immediately propels him into fantasy stardom. Do love the price though for someone who is a TD machine when everything is clicking. James White is always an interesting play as well because of his pass-catching abilities out of the backfield. White has 7 receiving TDs on the year and will likely be used heavily to try and beat a Chargers Defense that brings pressure a lot. Finally we have Sony Michel. I hate his matchup this week at the Chargers are good vs the Run and will not allow him much room to work with. Michel is one-dimensional too which means he is only going to run the ball, no catching allowed.

 

Final Verdict: LAC 29 – NE 18

 

Divisional Round #4: PHI (21.5) @ NO (29.5) – O/U: 51.0

 

Oh baby this final game is going to be a doozy. Nick Foles must have some sort of magic powers because I do not know how he wins these games. A missed field goal that hits the upright twice? I mean whatever it takes I guess. He also didn’t do too bad against a nasty Bears Defense throwing for 266 yards and 2 TDs with 2 INTs as well. Foles TD passes went to Dallas Goedert and Golden Tate which shows just how deep this offense is. Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffrey and Nelson Agholor are out there as well and everyone has been getting fairly even touches. I mean look at this target share: Jeffrey (9), Agholor (6), Tate (8), Ertz (7) & Goedert (4). What I get out of this is that Golden Tate is starting to find his role in this offense and that Zach Ertz may not be a top option anymore. Tate’s price looks beautiful and then you throw in that the Saint’s Defense is ranked 32nd in DVP vs WRs and I say start the man.

 

The RB situation for PHI is kind of a mess but at least we only need to worry about two guys now with Josh Adams only getting 1 carry last game vs CHI. Sproles saw so many carries (13) that it got a little weird. I mean he only rushed for 21 yards which is less than 2 yards per carry, so I am definitely not saying start him. Wendell Smallwood was his backup and he saw 10 touches for like 40 yards which shows you that these guys are not the crème de la crème. Also the Saints have 2nd Best Rushing Defense in the NFL so I say both of these guys are a no go. Sorry boss.

 

The final team to talk about is the New Orleans Saints who are looking like bonified Super Bowl Contenders this season. Alvin Kamara has a bone to pick with the people who did not vote him to the Pro-Bowl despite his league leading 21-TDs this season. Well good thing he can do that in the playoff’s vs the Eagles. But he does have Mark Ingram breathing down his neck and that is never good especially when Ingram is the power back. That smells like a TD vulture to me but hey even with Ingram stealing touches, Kamara still managed to reel off two-straight 20+ fantasy point games to end the year. Then we have the other part of the offense which is of course led by Drew Brees. His favorite target this year has been Michael Thomas which is why he is so high priced. Tedd Ginn Jr. is back in the lineup as well after missing most of the year with an injury. He had 8 targets in his first game back vs PIT and was immediately entrenched with a huge offense workload. Love him this week vs the Eagle’s Defense which is ranked 30th in DVP vs WRs and has allowed the 3rd most passing yards in the NFL. I didn’t talk much about Michael Thomas who is teams clear #1 option which I apologize for. He has four 30+ fantasy point games this year and will likely be the highest scoring WR on this Weekend’s slate. Love the value vs PHI who is very suspect vs the Pass.

 

Final Verdict: PHI 31 – NO 38

 

Thank you all for reading this Divisional Playoff Edition of the DFS Rundown!

 

My name is G.R. Bunch aka the Daily Fantasy Hitman.

 

Follow me on Twitter @DailyHitman for more content!

 

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