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NBA Betting Overview: January 29, 2019

A seven game slate without a close spread, but there looks to be a few places for the smart guy to grab an edge…

 

Wizards at Cavaliers

 

Total: 218.5

Spread: WAS – 7.5

WAS: 21-28, Last 10: 6-4, Away: 6-19, ATS: 22-27,  Dog: 12-10,  Streak: L1

CLV: 10-41, Last 10: 2-8, Home: 5-19, ATS: 22-28-1,  Fav: 9-38, Streak: W1

 

The Wizards head into Quicken Loans Arena on the front end of a back-to-back for a game that almost no one would care about if not for gambling and daily fantasy. The Cavaliers are a bad team muddling through a lost season as they attempt to develop Colin Sexton and Cedi Osman amongst a seemingly endless rotation of replacement level bodies.

 

The Wizards have been playing competitive ball over the last month, but they’ve been bad on the road (6-19 overall, 7-18 against the spread). Washington’s the much better team on paper, but with a game against the Pacers on deck tomorrow night I can’t trust them to cover the spread.

 

 

Bucks at Pistons

 

Total: 216.5

Spread: MIL – 7.5

MIL: 35-13, Last 10: 8-2, Away: 13-9, ATS: 26-20-1, Dog: 31-11 Streak: L1

DET: 29-18, Last 10: 4-6, Home: 13-11, ATS: 22-25-1, Fav: 9-23 Streak: L1

 

Fresh off a Sunday loss in Oklahoma City, the Bucks are heading into Detroit looking to sweep their four game set with the Pistons.

 

Milwaukee’s not just the superior squad, but they’re also a nightmare match-up for the Pistons as the Bucks defense is the best in the NBA at denying opponents access to the paint and they’ve forced opponents to attempt a league high 35.7 shots from downtown this season. The Pistons are the second worst three point shooting team in the league hitting just 33.2% from beyond the arc.

 

The Bucks lose games when their opponents shoot over 40% from deep (for example, OKC went 16-32 against them on Sunday) and the Pistons simply don’t have the personnel to do that.

 

In addition to the Bucks being one of the best bets of the night, both these teams have gone under in eight of their last 10 games so there are two great paths to attacking this game.

 

 

Thunder at Magic

 

Total: 221.5

Spread: OKC – 4.5

OKC: 31-18, Last 10: 6-4, Away: 14-11, ATS: 27-22, Dog: 24-15 Streak: W5

ORL: 20-30, Last 10: 3-7, Home: 12-14, ATS: 24-24-2, Fav: 14-23 Streak: L3

 

The Thunder are coming off a convincing win over the Bucks on Sunday, now they travel to Orlando for a game that they should win although the spread has dropped a point and a half from an opening line of OKC -6.

 

The Magic have gone 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games and been more competitive of late as Steve Clifford has shortened the Orlando rotation. With Nikola Vucevic in the midst of a career season and Steven Adams playing at less than 100% of late this looks to be a trap game as the Thunder have lost ground on the spread despite receiving 72% of the bets.

 

 

Bulls at Nets

 

Total: 219.5

Spread: BK – 7

CHI: 11-39, Last 10: 1-9, Away: 6-19, ATS: 21-26-1, Dog: 8-37,  Streak: L3

BKN: 29-18 ,Last 10: 7-3, Home: 15-11, ATS: 26-21, Fav: 15-11,  Streak: L1

 

This total has jumped to 219.5 from an opening total of 217. Brooklyn’s on the back end of a back-to-back after dropping a 112-104 to the Celtics last night wherein no Net played more than 27 minutes. Brooklyn is pushing to stack as many wins as possible at the moment as they have one of the hardest closing schedules in the NBA coming down on them

 

The Bulls have been atrocious of late (1-9 in their last ten, 2-7-1 against the spread) while the Nets have beat their opponents and the spread in seven of their last ten outings. The Nets should definitely win this game, but it’s hard to have confidence in either team against the spread given how many deep the rotations have been for these teams of late.

 

Pelicans at Rockets

 

Total: 233.5

Spread: HOU – 11

NOP: 22-26, Last 10: 4-6, Away: 7-20, ATS: 22-27-1, Dog: 5-17,  Streak: L3

HOU: 29-18, Last 10: 6-4, Home: 19-7, ATS: 23-25-1, Fav: 19-7, Streak: W3

 

The Pelicans will be without Anthony Davis, Julius Randle, Nikola Mirotic and E’twaun Moore in their first game since receiving Davis’s trade request. The Rockets are getting closer to full health with Clint Capela being the only significant player slated to miss tonight’s home tilt.

 

New Orleans have been bad on the road, are short-handed and likely frustrated about Davis’s impending departure so I’d expect them to lay an egg against Mike D’Antoni’s squad. It’s difficult to lay double digits against any NBA team, but this sure feels like the kind of game that will end with Gerald Green padding the margin of victory in garbage time.

 

 

Suns at Spurs

 

Total: 225.5

Spread: SAS – 13

PHX: 11-41, Last 10: 1-9, Away: 4-22, ATS: 22-30, Dog: 10-39,  Streak: L8

SAS: 29-22, Last 10: 5-5, Home: 19-7, ATS: 31-20, Fav: 18-9,  Streak: W2

 

DeMar DeRozan is on the shelf for another game, but the under-manned Suns are so bad at the moment that DeRozan’s absence is unlikely to matter.

 

Driven by a tremendous second unit, the Spurs have been a force at home this season going 18-8 against the spread. So long as the Suns are missing DeAndre Ayton, DeAnthony Melton and TJ Warren they’re unlikely to be a match for any competent squad.

 

 

76ers at Lakers

 

Total 231

Spread PHI – 7

PHI: 32-18, Last 10: 6-4, Away: 11-13, ATS: 23-27,  Dog: 26-9, Streak: L1

LAL: 29-18,  Last 10: 5-5, Home: 16-11, ATS: 22-27-1,  Fav: 6-11,  Streak: W1

 

The Lakers will be without Lebron James, Lonzo Ball and Kyle Kuzma as they face the 76ers who will put their big three on the floor tonight at Staples Center.

 

Joel Embiid has absolutely destroyed the Lakers in his short career, averaging 31.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 5 assists and 4.6 blocks a game. He also loves playing at Staples as he’s tormented the Clippers for 32.5 points a game in his career.

 

The Lakers have hit the under in 31 of 50 games this season and 19 of 27 home titles so the Sixers and the under look to be among the best bets on the board tonight.

 

 

Has a late scratch sent you scrambling for answers? Looking for a sharp GPP pivot or want to debate a matchup? Reach me on Twitter (@TheHyperCritic) for the advice you need to be profitable.

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