Subscribe to our daily Newsletter

Twitter

home

MLB Odds, Trends, Best Bets: April 4, 2019

MLB Odds, Trends, Best Bets: April 4, 2019

 

 

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets 1:10PM/EST

Stephen Strasburg vs. Noah Syndergaard

Moneyline: Nationals +110/Mets -130

Spread: Nationals +1.5 (-210)/ -1.5 (+175)

Total Runs: Over 6.5 (-115)/Under 6.5 (-105)

 

Thursday’s games start off with a great pitching matchup. Noah Syndergaard will take the mound for the Mets in their home opener against the Washington Nationals and Stephen Strasburg. The Mets have been hot out the gates taking 2 of 3 in Washington and sweeping a 3-game set in Miami. The Nationals are off to a 2-3 start, but a little bad luck hit them two days ago when Trea Turner fractured a finger on his throwing hand while attempting a bunt.

 

Syndergaard and Strasburg faced each other already this season and neither fared well. Both pitchers went 6 innings and allowed 4 runs with the Mets eventually winning. Strasburg had the same stat line in his one outing against New York last season as well. On the other hand, Syndergaard did well in his two starts against Washington in 2018, going 1-1 with a 3 ERA in 12 innings. Something else that caught my eye was the amount of day games that Syndergaard pitched last season. He made 10 starts on day games in 2018 and went 5-1 with a 2.26 ERA.

 

The Mets are playing well and the Nationals are still figuring out how to structure their lineup. New York is favored as they should be, but this pitching matchup has the makings of a tight and low scoring game.

 

 

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers 1:10PM/EST

Jakob Junis vs. Spencer Turnbull

Moneyline: Royals -110/ Tigers -110

Spread: Royals -1.5 (+150)/Tigers +1.5 (-180)

Total Runs: Over 8 (+100)/Under 8 (-120)

 

The Kansas City and Detroit matchup is a pretty fair one. Both clubs will send somewhat unknown pitchers to the mound for this game. The Tigers and Royals finished 2018 with the 2nd and 3rd worst run production in the American League, respectively. The under is the main bet to focus on here, regardless of pitching matchup.

 

The Tigers are 4-3 on the season, but have only produced 14 runs of offense. Nicholas Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera are the best hitters in this dismal lineup and they’re off to slow starts. Spencer Turnbull got his first taste of the big leagues last season. It was a small taste, but this season the Tigers will see what they have in their farm system. Turnbull made one start this season in Toronto and he allowed 3 runs in 5 innings.

 

Jakob Junis had his first full season in 2018 and he wasn’t half bad. He logged 177 innings and a 4.37 ERA. I know the ERA doesn’t quite jump off the paper, but after the All-Star break he made 13 starts and had a 3.35 ERA in 75.1 innings. He dominated Detroit last season going 4-0 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 37 innings. The Kansas City offense has been pretty sturdy in 2019, finding themselves 15th in offensive production early on. The Royals are a young, talented team with veterans Whit Merrifield and Alex Gordon leading the way. The Kansas City spread seems justified.

 

 

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles 3:05PM/EST

James Paxton vs. Alex Cobb

Moneyline: Yankees -220/Orioles +180

Spread: Yankees -1.5 (-120)/Orioles +1.5 (+100)

Total Runs: Over 8 (-115)/Under 8 (-105)

 

New York has struggled to score runs in the early going. They are 2-4 after losing two series at home against Baltimore and Detroit. The Yankees have amassed 7 runs in their last 3 games. Injuries have played a factor with Miguel Andujar and Giancarlo Stanton out.

 

James Paxton made his Yankees debut at home against these Orioles and allowed just 1 run in 5.2 innings, but got stuck with a tough luck loss. He even did well in his lone start against them last season when he donned a Seattle uniform, tossing 7 innings while allowing 2 earned runs. There is little doubt that Paxton will perform well against Baltimore, but the Yankees feel hard to trust right now with the way they’re hitting the ball.

 

Alex Cobb was slated to throw opening day, but he suffered a minor groin tweak in his final spring tuneup. He’s ready to go now for the Baltimore home opener. Cobb posted a 3.66 ERA back in 2017, but was below average in 2018 with a 4.9 ERA. He threw well against the Yankees last season in three games, posting a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings. Cobb actually has amazing numbers in his career vs. New York logging a 2.9 ERA and 7-4 record in 102.1 innings. If you’re ever going to gamble on an underdog, it’s right now. The Orioles are 4-2 and hot streaks can be a profitable ride.

 

 

Boston Red Sox @ Oakland A’s 3:37PM/EST

Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Brett Anderson

Moneyline: Red Sox -120/A’s +100

Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+135)/A’s +1.5 (-160)

Total Runs: Over 8.5 (+100)/Under 8.5 (-120)

 

The A’s come in to today having won 4 of their last 5. Brett Anderson put together 6 shut out innings in a splendid start against the Angels in his first outing. He hasn’t been relevant since 2015. Oakland has shut out the Boston offense in 2 of the 3 games this series, but there’s slim chance that happens in this one. The Oakland offense hasn’t quite matched the production level that they saw in 2018, averaging about one less run per game.

 

Boston will look to split the 4-game series with Oakland. Eduardo Rodriguez had his best season in 2018 logging a 3.82 ERA in 129.2 innings. He had a ridiculous 13-5 record thanks to the Boston offense. The Sox came alive for 6 runs last night with Mookie Betts leading the way. This offense cant be contained much longer. This is a fun match and a playoff meeting would be interesting.

 

 

Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians 6:10PM/EST

Aaron Sanchez vs. Trevor Bauer

Moneyline: Blue Jays +160/Indians -190

Spread: Blue Jays +1.5 (-130)/Indians -1.5 (+110)

Total Runs: Over 7 (-110)/Under 7 (-110)

 

The 2-3 Cleveland Indians have scored a meager 13 runs in their 5 games. There hasn’t been much production to support this great pitching staff. Their lineup is significantly different from 2018. Edwin Encarnacion was dealt to Seattle in the offseason, Yonder Alonso left for the White Sox, Michael Brantley went to Houston, Yan Gomes left for Washington, Jason Kipnis is rehabbing a calf flare, and Francisco Lindor is out at least a couple more weeks with an ankle sprain.

 

Aaron Sanchez made 20 starts in 2018 after missing nearly all of 2017 with blister issues. He still has lots of upside and has great stuff. He threw 5 shut out in his season debut vs. Detroit. Sanchez didn’t face Cleveland last season and may have an edge with many Indians having limited at-bats against him. The Blue Jays are playing decent now, and the moneyline bet would yield a nice return if the Cleveland offense continues what they’ve been doing.

 

Trevor Bauer broke out in 2018 in a big way by striking out 221 in 175.1 Innings with a 2.21 ERA. He had never totaled 200 strike outs before, nor had he ever had an ERA below 4.18 in a season. He dominated in his debut by tossing 7 innings of 1 run ball in Minnesota. The under seems like a decent pick with that in mind.

 

 

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates 7:05PM/EST

Tyler Mahle vs. Jordan Lyles

Moneyline: Reds +105/Pirates -125

Spread: Reds +1.5 (-200)/Pirates -1.5 (+170)

Total Runs: Over 8 (-110)/Under 8 (-110)

 

The 1-4 Reds’ revamped offense has only cashed in 11 runs in 5 games. The pressure will be on for second year starter Tyler Mahle as he makes his 2019 debut. Mahle posted a 4.98 ERA in 23 starts last season. He faced Pittsburgh twice in 2018 and allowed 11 earned runs in just 10.1 innings.

 

Jordan Lyles is new to Pittsburgh and a lot of his work in his career has come from the bullpen. He has started just 13 games in the past two seasons. He has had a 5+ ERA in 6 of his 8 professional seasons. This could be a big awakening for the Cincinnati offense, and could even be an early bullpen battle. Although the Reds are struggling, this seems like a good moneyline bet in favor of them as well as the over.

 

 

Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves 7:20PM/EST

Yu Darvish vs. Max Fried

Moneyline: Cubs +100/Braves -120

Spread: Cubs +1.5 (-200)/Braves -1.5 (+170)

Total Runs: Over 8.5 (-110)/Under 8.5 (-110)

 

Max Fried made the big league club and is now starting for Atlanta, but he may find himself back in the bullpen whenever Mike Foltynewicz is healthy. Fried started 5 games in 2018 and somehow mustered a 2.49 ERA in those starts. He totaled 21.2 innings, 15 hits, and 14 walks in those 5 outings. Pair that with Yu Darvish being the opposing pitcher, and we are sure to hit the over in this one.

 

Darvish struggled in 2018 during his first season with the Cubs. He dealt with tricep tendinitis and only totaled 8 starts. He walked 21 in his 40 innings and had a 4.95 ERA. His lone 2019 start saw much of the same, walking 7 batters and lasting 2.2 innings. Darvish is only 32, but he might need some time to work the kinks out.

 

The Cubs at even money are a nice value pick. Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman are currently hitting well for Atlanta, but the rest of the lineup is slow to warm up. The Chicago offense has been productive at this point.

 

 

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels 10:07PM/EST

Edinson Volquez vs. Matt Harvey

Moneyline: Rangers +130/Angels -150

Spread: Rangers +1.5 (-160)/Angels -1.5 (+135)

Total Runs: Over 8.5 (-105)/Under 8.5 (-115)

 

Matt Harvey has been irrelevant since the 2016 season started, and yet teams that are desperate for pitching keep giving him opportunities. Harvey hasn’t been the same since we heard of the thoracic outlet syndrome that plagued his shoulder years ago. He had a 4.94 ERA last season which was an improvement from his 6.7 ERA in 2017. Harvey had a nice debut this season though, going 6 innings and allowing 2 runs in Oakland. The majority of Rangers hitters have never faced Harvey before, so he’s got that going for himself at least.

 

The Texas Rangers are 4-2 to start 2019 with their offense being fairly consistent. Edinson Volquez will need more of those runs in this match. Volquez joins his 6th team in as many seasons. It’s hard to know what you’ll get from him on any given start. He has some atrocious seasons under his belt along with a few impressive ones. The Los Angeles offense has scored 13 runs in 6 games this season. I wonder if teams will pitch around Mike Trout, especially while Justin Upton is out. The Rangers are an intriguing pick in this one as well as the under. Check out our MLB lineup optimizer to see if picking Trout in your DFS lineups is a must tonight. RotoQL’s DFS tools provide you with the info the pros use and help you build dozens of winning lineups a night.

 

*All odds and lines are subject to change. Become a BetQL subscriber to get up to the second line movement and sharp bettor data.

Postponed Games:

Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox

San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals

 

visit website

recommended by

Twitter