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MLB Odds, Trends, Best Bets: April 2, 2019

MLB Odds, Trends, Best Bets: April 2, 2019 

 

 

Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees 6:35PM/EST

Jordan Zimmermann vs. Masahiro Tanaka

Moneyline: Tigers +190/Yankees -235

Spread: Tigers +1.5 (+100)/Yankees -1.5 (-120)

Total Runs: Over 8 (-105)/Under 8 (-115)

 

The Yankees are fresh off a win during their home opener with the Tigers. Things weren’t so pleasant in their 3-game set in Baltimore as the Yankees offense combined for 15 runs and lost the series 2-1. To make matters worse, Giancarlo Stanton was placed on the IL with a bicep strain and Miguel Andujar may need season-ending shoulder surgery. Things could slow down for the New York offense for the time being.

 

Masahiro Tanaka is coming off an opening day win against the Orioles where he lasted 5.2 innings and walked none. He draws another dismal offense in this one. Tanaka allowed 1 run in 7 innings last season in his only start against Detroit. Jordan ZImmermann has been downright horrible for the Tigers ever since they signed him to a massive contract three years ago. His 4.52 ERA last season was technically his best season in the Motor City. Zimmermann managed to throw 7 innings of 1-hit ball on opening day against Toronto, showing shades of his Washington days. He made one start vs. the Yankees last season and gave up 3 homers in his 6 innings.

 

The Tigers offense has scored a pitiful 7 runs in their 5 games. Things aren’t clicking just yet for either offense making the under appealing. The Yankees should muster an early lead behind Tanaka and fend off Detroit with their splendid bullpen.

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinatti Reds 6:40PM/EST

Jhoulys Chacin vs. Anthony DeSclafani

Moneyline: Brewers  -115/Reds -105

Spread: Brewers -1.5 (+145)/Reds +1.5 (-170)

Total Runs: Over 9 (-105)/Under 9 (-115)

 

The Brew-crew took 3 out of 4 in their opening series with the Cardinals and won the first of a 3-game set in Cincinnati yesterday. Bad news hit Milwaukee recently when it was determined that closer Corey Knebel needed Tommy John surgery. The Brewers bullpen has been solid so far without him. Jhoulys Chacin will make his second start in 2019 after an opening day start that resulted in 5.1 innings and 3 runs. He has a career 4.22 ERA in 6 career games in Cincinnati. Christian Yelich has 4 homers already, and this Brewers offense looks to improve off their 12th-place finish in offensive production in 2018.

 

The Reds come in to this game with a 1-2 record. The offense is off to a slow start producing 8 runs in their 3 games. The additions of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp should help in the long run. Second base slugger Scooter Gennett will be missed for two or three months while he recovers from a severe groin strain. Anthony DeSclafani takes the bump in this one to make his 2019 debut. He has a career 4.91 ERA at home in Cincinnati. His numbers are ugly against the Brewers in his lifetime too. Both starters have the potential to get yanked early in this one. Brewers are favored and the spread seems favorable for them too.

 

 

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals 7:05PM/EST

Zach Eflin vs. Max Scherzer

Moneyline: Phillies +160/Nationals -190

Spread: Phillies +1.5 (-130)/Nationals -1.5(+110)

Total Runs: Over 7(-110)/Under 7(-110)

 

The 3-0 Phillies will trot out young starter Zach Eflin to face 3-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer. Eflin had some rough outings against Washington last season, posting a 5.93 ERA in his 3 starts against the club. The Nationals offense has combined to score 14 runs in their past two games and could chase Eflin from this one early. The Philadelphia offense scorched Atlanta with 23 runs in 3 games. Even with Scherzer on the mound, the over looks pretty good.

 

Max Scherzer drew some bad luck opening day. He allowed 2 runs in 7.2 innings and was stuck with taking the loss. The Washington offense should pick him up this time around. Scherzer had a 2.95 ERA in 3 starts against the Phillies last season without Bryce Harper, Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen in the Philly lineup, of course. The Nationals are favored and should cover the spread as well. We’ll see how the Washington crowd reacts to Bryce Harper in his first return to D.C. With Bryce heading back to D.C. everyone’s eyes are going to be on this game. While you are watching you might as well try and win some money playing daily fantasy baseball. RotoQL has your back with our MLB optimizer our tool set relies on data to help you build and optimize dozens of winning daily fantasy lineups. If you are watching you might as well be winning!

 

Colorado Rockies @ Tampa Bay Rays 7:10PM/EST

Kyle Freeland vs. Blake Snell

Moneyline: Rockies +135/Rays -160

Spread: Rockies +1.5 (-170)/Rays -1.5 (+145)

Total Runs: Over 7 (-105)/Under 7 (-115)

 

Ace alert! A pitching duel lurks in this matchup. Blake Snell didn’t face the Rockies in 2018 during his Cy Young campaign. He allowed 5 runs in 6 innings against the Astros on opening day, including 3 home runs. He only allowed 5 runs in 2 of his 31 starts last season, one being his second start of 2018. Snell is used to facing top notch offenses in his division, so facing the Rockies isn’t anything new. He went 10-1 at home last season with a 1.27 ERA. That’s exactly why the Rays are favored in this one.

 

Kyle Freeland has never faced the Rays, and last season he posted a 3.23 ERA on the road. Freeland dominated the Marlins on opening day, earning a win and allowing just a solo homer in 7 innings. The Rockies have had a slow start to their offense so far, and now the newly signed Daniel Murphy is seeking a specialist to determine what to do about his bad finger. This should be a very interesting game. The 4-1 Rays have momentum on their side over the 2-3 Rockies.

 

 

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers 8:05PM/EST

Justin Verlander vs. Shelby Miller

Moneyline: Astros -225/Rangers +185

Spread: Astros -1.5 (-135)/Rangers +1.5 (+115)

Total Runs: Over 9 (+100)/Under 9 (-120)

 

This is a lop-sided match on paper. Surely Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros couldn’t lose to the Texas Rangers. Crazy things can happen early in the season when teams are still finding their groove. Verlander pummeled the Rays on opening day, logging 7 innings and striking out 9 while allowing just 1 run (in the 1st inning). The Astros proceeded to lose 3 straight to Tampa Bay afterward. The Houston offense has scored just 11 runs in 5 games this season. Things will click soon enough, but right now it’s just not. Maybe they’re not complete locks to win this one after all?

 

The 2-2 Rangers will deploy Shelby Miller in this one. Miller was once a prized pitcher that allowed the Braves to acquire a past number one overall pick in Dansby Swanson from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Things didn’t work out at all in Miller’s 3 seasons in Arizona, as he missed the last two seasons essentially recovering from Tommy John surgery. He will get a fresh start in Texas. Surely he won’t last long in this one given his recent injury woes. The Texas offense has scored 24 runs in 4 games, defeating Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels in the process.

 

 

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals 8:15PM/EST

Jose Berrios vs. Brad Keller

Moneyline: Twins -140/Royals +120

Spread: Twins -1.5 (+120)/Royals +1.5 (-140)

Total Runs: Over 7.5 (-105)/Under 7.5 (-115)

 

The Twins and Royals both come in to this matchup with 2-1 records in 2019. 23-year old starter Brad Keller will get the call today for Kansas City as he draws Minnesota ace Jose Berrios. Keller was a bright spot for the Royals in 2018 splitting time between the starting rotation and bullpen, logging a 3.08 ERA in 141.1 innings. He got the call for the opening day start and allowed just 3 base runners over 7 shut out innings against the White Sox. Keller made two starts against the Twins last season, logging a 3.6 ERA in 10 innings. Speed is an abundance for this team, and guys like Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, and Billy Hamilton can wreak havoc on the base paths. The under seems like a safe bet with quality arms going on both sides.

 

Jose Berrios is fresh off a dominating opening day start where he single-handedly took down a Cleveland offense that is currently missing Francisco Lindor. He was dealing as he slung 7.2 shut out innings allowing just 2 hits and striking out 10. Berrios loved facing the Royals in 2018, going 2-1 in 4 starts against the club with a stingy ERA of 2.08 in 26 innings. There is a glaring split in his stats from last season though, as he was very comfortable throwing at home. His home ERA in 2018 was 3.03 as opposed to a road ERA of 4.85. The Twins bats broke out on sunday providing 6 runs off Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco. The Twins will struggle to score runs in general in 2019 with fan-favorite Brian Dozier being dealt at the trade deadline last season, and young power bat Miguel Sano injured. This has the makes of being a very close game.

 

 

Boston Red Sox @ Oakland A’s 10:07PM/EST

Chris Sale vs. Mike Fiers

Moneyline: Red Sox -180/A’s +150

Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (-105)/A’s +1.5 (-115)

Total Runs: Over 7.5 (-105)/Under 7.5 (-115)

 

The Oakland A’s are on a 3-game winning streak after they dominated David Price last night in a 7-0 victory. The Oakland bats are off to a bit of a slow start compared to 2018 when they finished 4th in offensive productivity. Matt Olson is out 6-8 weeks after injuring his hamate bone in the series in Japan, so the offense will be running below full speed for now. The reigning champion Boston Red Sox are off to a 1-4 start, allowing a whopping 41 runs in those games. The A’s are the hot team right now, and that bodes well for them playing a sluggish Sox team early on.

 

Chris Sale got rocked on opening day. The Mariners tagged him for 7 earned runs (3 homers) in just 3 innings. Sale rarely has back-to-back starts like this one. In fact, Sale only allowed 4 or more runs in just 3 of his 27 starts in 2018. Oakland did alright against him last season, though. Sale made two starts against the A’s in 2018 and he went 1-1 in 12 innings allowing 5 runs. He is one of the game’s best and typically the Sox give him plenty of runs, but currently the Boston offense is lagging.

 

Mike Fiers makes his third start of 2019. He was awful in Japan, allowing 5 runs and needing 58 pitches to get through 3 innings. He bounced back on opening day by firing 6 shut out frames against the Angels. He threw 6.1 shut out against the Sox in his only start against them last season, though he was in constant trouble allowing 10 base runners in that game. 2018 was arguably Fiers’ best season as a pro, and the A’s hope he can continue that for them in 2019.

 

 

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers 10:10PM/EST

Madison Bumgarner vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu

Moneyline: Giants +160/Dodgers -190

Spread: Giants +1.5 (-145)/Dodgers -1.5 (+125)

Total Runs: Over 7 (-110)/Under 7 (-110)

 

Here’s a fun rivalry game to end Tuesday’s action with lefties dueling on the mound. Hyun-Jin Ryu is 1-0 after defeating the Diamondbacks on opening day. He allowed just a solo homer in his 6 innings of work, earning him a win. Ryu made 3 starts against the Giants in 2018 and he allowed just 3 runs in 17.2 innings. The powerful Dodger offense has picked up where they left off in 2018, as they have mustered 44 runs in their 5 games. Los Angeles is favored heavily in this one, and understandably so. The pennant winning Dodgers look to get revenge tonight after losing 4-2 to San Francisco last evening.

 

After a whirlwind of trade rumors in the offseason, the San Francisco ace finds himself in the orange and black still as one of the longest current tenured Giants. Madison Bumgarner is no stranger to the L.A./S.F. rivalry. He has made 31 starts against the Dodgers in his career, so we will look to focus on 2018. Last season in 3 starts against L.A., Bumgarner went 0-2 with an ERA of 4. Pair that with the fact that the Giants have pushed 9 runs across home plate in 5 games and the Giants suddenly become less appetizing. This offense ranked 29th in offensive production in 2018 and things don’t appear to be changing anytime soon. Bumgarner is very capable of keeping the Giants close in games, but the offense really needs to show up. San Francisco will look to build off their 4-2 win over the Dodgers last night.

 

 

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