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MLB Odds, Trends, Best Bets: April 11, 2019

MLB Odds, Trends, Best Bets: April 11, 2019

 

Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers 1:10PM/EST

Shane Bieber vs. Spencer Turnbull

Moneyline: Indians -130/Tigers +110

Spread: Indians -1.5 (+125)/Tigers +1.5 (-145)

Total Runs: Over 7.5 (-110)/Under 7.5 (-110)

 

The Tigers tagged Trevor Bauer yesterday, smacking 10 hits (2 homers) and scoring 4 runs off him. The loss ended Cleveland’s 4-game win streak. With that in mind, the Tigers are still dead last in runs scored in the AL and own a team batting average below the .200 mark.

 

Shane Bieber is coming off a good start against the Blue Jays. Toronto managed just 2 hits, one being a homer, in 6 innings off of Bieber. He went 1-1 against Detroit last year in his rookie season with a 3.46 ERA. Cleveland fans are excited about Bieber in a rotation that’s already very deep.

 

Spencer Turnbull was pretty good in his last outing against the Royals. He allowed 8 baserunners that led to 2 runs in 6 innings. The Cleveland offense will be inconsistent until Francisco Lindor returns from his mild ankle sprain in the spring. Jose Uribe has yet to enjoy 2019 as well, going 6/39 with 0 homers at the moment. Runs should continue to be scarce.

 

 

Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals 1:15PM/EST

Walker Buehler vs. Michael Wacha

Moneyline: Dodgers -145/Cardinals +125

Spread: Dodgers -1.5 (+110)/Cardinals +1.5 (-130)

Total Runs: Over 8.5 (-110)/Under 8.5 (-110)

 

Walker Buehler is considered one of the best young pitchers in all of baseball. The 24-year old didn’t disappoint in his rookie campaign, making 23 starts for the Dodgers in 2018 and finishing with a fabulous 2.62 ERA in 137.1 innings. He made 2 starts against St. Louis last season and had them completely baffled, throwing 15 shut out innings with 18 Ks. He’s also coming off a strong 5 inning start in Colorado where he allowed just 1 run.

 

Michael Wacha takes the ball in a tough matchup with the Dodgers. He has allowed 1 run in each of his starts in 2019, and they were against good offenses, too. The St. Louis bullpen let him down in both of those games. It’s similar to what fans experienced with the pen last season. Wacha’s end results for both outings this season didn’t quite paint the whole picture. He walked 8 in his last outing against the Padres and walked 4 against the Brewers. The Dodgers will most certainly capitalize if he doesn’t get a grip on his control.

 

The Cardinals will look to hand the Dodgers a 4-game sweep in the series. Their pitching has really slowed the Los Angeles offense down, allowing just 5 runs in their 3 games. Even so, the Dodgers have still scored the most runs overall in the NL in 2019. The Dodgers can’t possibly lose 4 straight to the red birds, could they?

 

 

Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals 1:15PM/EST

Mike Leake vs. Jorge Lopez

Moneyline: Mariners -130 /Royals +110

Spread: Mariners -1.5 (+115)/Royals +1.5 (-135)

Total Runs: Over 10 (-110)/Under 10 (-110)

 

Mike Leake fared very well in his 2 starts this season, logging a 2.92 ERA in 12.1 innings. He has a 4.02 career ERA in 266 total starts, so don’t get too excited. Leake’s 2018 season was pretty forgettable, especially considering his $16MM salary, as he made 31 starts and held a 4.36 ERA.

 

Jorge Lopez hasn’t had much success in the pros so far, moving between the minors and majors for the Brewers between 2015-2018. The pitching needy Royals swooped him last season and gave him 7 starts. He accumulated a very high 6.35 ERA in 34 innings. He likely made his best start as a pro last week against Detroit, tossing 6 innings and allowing 1 run.

 

The 12-2 Seattle Mariners lead all of baseball in offensive production and homers, so my faith in Lopez and the Royals are all but gone in this one.

 

 

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox 7:10PM/EST

Aaron Sanchez vs. Nathan Eovaldi

Moneyline: Blue Jays +170/Red Sox -200

Spread: Blue Jays +1.5 (-115)/Red Sox -1.5 (-105)

Total Runs: Over 9.5 (-105)/Under 9.5 (-115)

 

Toronto fans are hopeful that Aaron Sanchez can return to his 2016 ace form. He is off to a good start in 2019, generating a 1.64 ERA in 11 innings with 11 Ks. The Red Sox hit Sanchez hard in 2018 in 4 starts, dealing his an 0-2 record against them with a 4.7 ERA.

 

All Nathan Eovaldi had to do in 2018 was make 11 solid starts for the Red Sox to earn a major payday. The hard throwing righty secured a 4-year contract in the offseason worth $67.5MM in total. The 29-year old Eovaldi threw to the tune of a 3.33 ERA in his 11 starts with Boston last season after he was acquired from Tampa Bay. He owns a career 4.21 ERA in 150 career starts. He has given up 4 homers so far in 10 innings in 2019 in his outings against Oakland and Seattle.

 

The 3-9 Boston club has poor career numbers overall against Sanchez. The Toronto offense could muster some early runs off a struggling Eovaldi and fare well. The Blue Jays just chased Chris Sale after 4 innings and 5 runs yesterday.

 

 

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves 7:20PM/EST

Steven Matz vs. Kevin Gausman

Moneyline: Mets +105/Braves -125

Spread: Mets +1.5 (-185)/Braves -1.5 (+155)

Total Runs: Over 8.5 (-115)/Under 8.5 (-105)

 

Mets fans are expecting Steven Matz to fly under the radar and have a solid season. He made 30 starts in 2018 and amassed a 3.97 ERA. His numbers would be even better had he not struggled with keeping the ball in the yard. Last season he allowed 25 bombs in just 154 innings. He is coming off a start against Washington where he was effectively wild, and he has totaled 10.1 innings in his two outings and allowed just 1 run.

 

Kevin Gausman seemed rejuvenated after being traded from Baltimore to Atlanta last season, making 10 starts for the Braves earning a fine 2.87 ERA. The AL East is no fun for a pitcher and he still managed a couple of really nice seasons in his tenure with Baltimore. He is fresh off a 7 shut out performance against the terrible Marlins.

 

The New York offense has piled on the runs over their last 3 games, totaling 26. Both offenses are neck and neck this season, so a pitching duel is unlikely today. Don’t forget that you can capitalize on trends like this with RotoQL’s MLB DFS Optimizer. Our tool is able to build multiple winning DFS lineups for both Draftkings and Fan Duel. Daily Fantasy is a great way to hold you over until sports gambling finally becomes legal in your state.

 

 

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs 8:05PM/EST

Joe Musgrove vs. Jose Quintana

Moneyline: Pirates +120/Cubs -140

Spread: Pirates ()/Cubs ()

Total Runs: Over  ()/Under ()

 

Jose Quintana was a pure gem in his 5+ seasons with the White Sox. He has had a rough go in the National League since he was traded to the Cubs in 2017. The Milwaukee bats beat him up in his most recent outing, slugging 3 homers (8 runs total) in 3 innings off the lefty. Thankfully, the Pittsburgh offense is nothing like Chicago’s. He logged 10 innings against the Pirates last season and allowed just 3 runs.

 

Joe Musgrove was one of the big pieces sent to Pittsburgh in the Gerrit Cole trade. Musgrove got his feet wet in Pittsburgh in 2018, making 19 starts and totaling a decent 4.06 ERA. Some think Musgrove will have a breakout campaign this season. He did very well in his lone 2019 start, shutting out Cincinnati over 7 frames. Surprisingly, Musgrove dominated the Cubs last season. He won both his starts and allowed 2 runs in 14 innings. The Pirates’ team leading ERA in the NL will look to slow down the Chicago offense.

 

 

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks 9:40PM/EST

Pedro Avila vs. Zack Godley

Moneyline: Padres /Diamondbacks

Spread: Padres ()/Diamondbacks ()

Total Runs: Over  ()/Under ()

 

The 8-5 Padres will run Pedro Avila out for his major league debut. The 22-year old is likely to have a short stay with the big league club, but his strike outs totals were impressive in the minors last season. It’s hard to trust a kid making his debut, and it could very well be a long game for the bullpen.

 

If you saw Zack Godley’s win total in 2018, you’d probably assume some things. His 15 wins were pretty unremarkable given his hideous 4.74 ERA. Arizona supporters were likely confused after Godley pitched to a cool 3.37 ERA in 2017. Godley did a great job of limiting the long ball last year, but his control was way off. He walked a ridiculous 81 batters in 178.1 innings and his WHIP ballooned to 1.45. He has already allowed 8 earned runs in 11 innings this season. This is getting pretty negative, and I think you get the picture at this point. Godley can’t be trusted right now.

 

The Arizona offense has been more productive than San Diego’s in the early goings. Look for lots of runs in this one.

 

 

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants 9:45PM/EST

Jon Gray vs. Jeff Samardzija

Moneyline: Rockies -130/Giants +110

Spread: Rockies -1.5 (+145)/Giants +1.5 (-170)

Total Runs: Over 7.5 (+105)/Under 7.5 (-125)

 

Jon Gray comes in to this match 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA so far in 2019. He took a big step back in 2018, logging a 5.12 ERA in 31 starts. It’s hard to hold hefty ERA’s against Colorado pitchers, but Gray was actually worse on the road last season. The San Francisco offense pummeled Gray last season in 3 outings, totaling just 11 innings in 3 starts with an 11.45 ERA.

 

The Jeff Samardzija project went fairly well in San Francisco in year one. The past two, however, have been forgettable. He went 6.2 innings and allowed 3 runs in his only home start against the Rockies last season. He has done alright this year in his 2 starts, owning a 2.79 ERA in his two outings, but the offenses will have every opportunity in this game.

 

The 4-9 Giants just scored 13 runs in their 3-game set with San Diego. The offense is far from reliable at this point, but the bullpens should be called upon early in this one. I like the Giants if it’s a bullpen battle.

 

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