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MLB Cheat Sheet: July 25th

Tuesday evening brings us a huge 14-game slate of baseball. Let’s jump right into all the information for tonight and start off the second-half with a bang. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

Kenta Maeda vs. Minnesota Twins ($7,600) – Maeda and the Dodgers are favored tonight as they take on the Minnesota Twins in LA. Maeda has quietly put together a solid string of starts lately, which truly makes him an attractive option. Since the beginning of June, Maeda owns a .289 wOBA with a .373 SLG and an 8.8 K/9. The Twins sport some less than stellar road numbers, with a .308 wOBA, .396 SLG and a .315 OBP. They also strike out at a fairly high rate of 22.5%, which currently ranks as the 12th highest in the league. With Maeda as cheap as he is, he certainly begs to be considered. Overall, pitching is quite cheap tonight, so you aren’t necessarily in the market to spend big at this position.

Highest Total

Miami Marlins vs. Texas Rangers– 10.5 runs – The Marlins and Rangers are once again the highest projected run total tonight, even after scoring a disappointing four total runs last night. The Rangers are the favorites here with a 5.6 run projection against Dan Straily. While he’s pitched well at home, Straily has had some issues on the road, particularly against righties. Straily is the owner of a .363 wOBA in those matchups with a .568 SLG and eight of his 16 home runs allowed on the year. It also doesn’t help that the Rangers are one of the best hitting clubs at home. The Rangers own a .343 wOBA at home with a .461 SLG and a .341 OBP. Anything would be more productive than last night, so we can only go up from here!

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns as of this afternoon!

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

Chase Field- Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -Chase Field is our most favorable ballpark tonight where all offensive categories are favored.

Globe Life Park- Miami Marlins vs. Texas Rangers -Home to the highest projected run total of the night, Globe Life Park is our second most favorable ballpark. All offensive categories with the exception of triples are favored here.

AT&T Park -Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants – AT&T Park is the worst out of all these ballparks tonight. No offensive categories are favored here.

Busch Stadium – Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Moving from the best offensive ballpark to one of the worst, the Rockies visit Busch Stadium starting tonight. Triples and walks are the only categories favored here.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Charlie Morton – Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies- $8,800 – Morton has been a nice surprise for the Astros since his return to the rotation earlier this month. In his three starts this month, Morton is averaging 17.7 fantasy points with a .297 wOBA, a .406 SLG and a K/9 of 9.2. Tonight, he has a great matchup against the Phillies, who are one of the worst hitting clubs at home. With so many mediocre pitching matchups on tap tonight, Morton has one of the best in the mid-salary range.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Bryce Harper – Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers- $5,600 – I mean, when ISN’T Harper in play? But with pitching as cheap as it is tonight, I figured it wouldn’t hurt to highlight Harper and his fantastic matchup. He’ll take on Zach Davies, who has struggled all season long against lefties. Davies is posting a .361 wOBA against them with a .493 SLG and a .358 OBP with nine of his 16 home runs allowed. Fitting in Harper shouldn’t be a problem on this slate.

Save Big by Drafting…

Matt Chapman – Oakland A’s vs. Toronto Blue Jays- $2,000 – I don’t think many people realize, but Chapman has posted three straight games in double digit fantasy points while running you the bare minimum of $2K. Yes, it’s a very small sample size, but Champman is 4-9 with a double, three home runs, and four RBI in his last three games. Tonight he takes on Cesar Valdez, who has allowed five home runs in just 18.1 innings. Truly, what do you have to lose here?

Stack Em Up

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves (Mike Foltynewicz) – Mike Foltynewicz is not someone who pitches well against lefties, so facing this Diamondbacks team at Chase Field spells nothing but disaster. Projected at 5.6 runs tonight, this D-Backs lineup is full of left-handed batters, the kryptonite to Folty. On the year he’s allowed a .373 wOBA to them with a .505 SLG with nine of his 16 home runs allowed. I believe this could end up being a lower owned stack than you’d expect, making it all the more attractive.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.

The post MLB Cheat Sheet: July 25th appeared first on DraftKings Playbook.

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