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The Gainsayer – Week 2 Contrarian Picks for DraftKings GPP’s

  • September 15, 2017
  • by admin

By Craig Bengel

@CraigBengel on Twitter

gainsayer. Noun. (plural gainsayers) One who contradicts or denies what is alleged; an opposer.

The opening slate of our 2017 season was filled with surprises. Some surprises may have landed you a big cash week one, while others most certainly destroyed some of your best lineups. And so it goes. The two highest priced running backs disappointed and one household wide receiver name delivered.  Gainsayer picks came through in a big way (LeSean McCoy, Deshone Kizer, Jaguars D, Aaron Rodgers), and if you used them last week I hope it lead to a nice payday.

This week we may have a logjam at running back with some value plays that may lead to high ownership.  If you do choose to use a highly owned value play, be sure to differentiate your lineup elsewhere. We have a full slate this Sunday with some great matchups where we can find low ownership. Let’s roll!

(Complete Sunday slate)

Disclaimer:  The players below should not necessarily be the centerpieces of your roster construction when creating lineups.  They should be used to compliment the core players you’ve selected for this week’s slate and as fill-ins when you find yourself gravitating to common chalky plays.

Quarterback

Alex Smith $5700

I am officially a believer that Alex Smith can shed the “game manager” tag in the prolific 2017 Kansas City offense.  If week one was any indication of things to come, then week 2 should be another abnormally high stat line for Smith. The Eagles present a plus matchup with 6 defenders performing poorly according to PFF.  He’s ranked 4th for QB’s in this young season, but his PFF grade of 83.7 is right in line with mid to low 80’s performance grades the past 6 seasons.

Carson Palmer $6000

I think it’s safe to say that this may be one of Carson Palmers final appearances in The Gainsayer.  He’s regressed for the past three seasons (93, 81.6, 70.2), and he lost a vital piece of his offense last week with the wrist fracture of David Johnson. However, he still has viable weapons in his receiving core and gets an excellent match up with a league-worst Indianapolis Colts defense in week two. This game could get lopsided early, but if it does, it will likely have been because of the successful Cardinals passing game. He may not throw much in the second half, so we should temper expectations, but this is a still a great matchup at low ownership.

Running Back

Marshawn Lynch $6000

This one seems so obvious that it may go a little overlooked in a week filled with value at the running back position. Marshawn Lynch has a great matchup with a poor Jets defense this week (7 of 11 starters perform poorly according to PFF), and is projected to be playing with a sizable lead in the second half.  He is the featured back in Oakland and has huge upside if he can stage a return close to his former elite running back status. If Lynch doesn’t end up with a huge stat line in this one, then I’ll have to scale back my expectations for the rest of the season.

Jacquizz Rodgers $4400

He’ll have a full workload against a bad defense, he’s one of the top receiving running backs in the NFL (when starting), and he comes into this year with an above average rating of 81.5 according to PFF.  There’s a lot to like about Jacquizz Rodgers this week, I’ll be hoping for a big game in this high powered offense. Ownership could be a problem, but I’ll look to differentiate my lineups elsewhere.  Although I think this statistic is a little skewed after week one, it’s worth pointing out: 8 of 11 defenders are performing poorly on this Bears currently.

Wide Receiver

Demaryius Thomas $5900

While Demaryius Thomas currently has a 73.5 grade according to PFF, I feel this grade can and will be much higher by week five.  Week two presents Thomas with an optimal matchup against Dallas cornerback Nolan Carroll, who carries a poor performance grade of 50.3. Last year Carroll graded out at 44.6, so we have a decent enough sample size to show this a very attackable corner.  Thomas was the Bronco’s number one redzone target for the previous two years, so don’t let last week’s dud scare you away. Ownership should be low, and the matchup really doesn’t get much better than this.

Adam Thielen $5000

Skeptics could chalk up week ones amazing performance as a fluke, but if you paid close attention last year then you might be agreeing with me as I type this gainsayer pick.  Adam Theilen filled in exceptionally well while Stephon Diggs was sidelined by injury last year, and the addition of a healthy Diggs this year should only bode better for Thielens outlook. He has a borderline elite 88.9 rating according to PFF, and the opposing cornerbacks are average and poor respectively. This offense features high volumes of short passes, significantly boosting Thielens value in Draft Kings PPR scoring format.

Tight End

Martellus Bennett $3900

Week one was a disappointing Packers debut for Martellus Bennett against a stout Seattle defense.  This week the matchup with less formidable Atlanta Falcons defense may offer us a bounce back performance. Aaron Rodgers and the high powered Packers offense should be keeping pace with the Falcons in what projects to be a high scoring game with shootout potential. Bennett is by far the best tight end Rodgers has had to work with, while Rodgers is also the best quarterback Bennett has seen in his career. He is also the 9th highest priced tight end on Draft Kings but should end up in the top 5 for scoring when all is said and done Sunday.

Team Defense

Baltimore $3700

Last week I was struggling to find a defense that was comparable to the Jacksonville Jaguars 2017 starters. I think I may have found one. The Ravens have a very impressive defense that features six players performing above average according to PFF, and this week they have a nice matchup with a rookie quarterback and an overall poor offensive unit. Deshone Kizer had a decent NFL debut by most measurable stats, but that was against a pretty soft Pittsburgh defense. This group of veterans, complimented by some great free agent acquisitions, should give Kizer plenty of problems in week two.

Good luck Week 2!

Don’t forget to check out the Week 1 RotoQL NFL optimizer if you haven’t already.  Reach me on twitter @CraigBengel if you have any comments or feedback about “The Gainsayer”.

 

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