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Burns’ Best Bets: Super Bowl 53

Super Bowl Sunday is finally here and before we dive into the game lets take a quick look back at Championship weekend. Everyone has already discussed the missed call in the New Orleans game so I won’t beat a dead horse as we all know the Saints were screwed. In the AFC championship game, in a game statistically dominated by New England, the Chiefs came roaring back in the second half to take the lead, but they fell short to Tom Brady and the Patriots. We ended up 0-2 on the day and aim to bounce back on Sunday. The full results are below.

 

New Orleans – 3 over Los Angeles Rams – L

Kansas City -3 over New England – L

 

Best Bets for Super Bowl 53

 

New England Patriots – 2.5 ( 11-7 ATS ) vs. Los Angeles Rams ( 9-7-2 ATS )

 

The Patriots seem to be playing their best football of the season at the right time. New England has been phenomenal on the offensive side of the ball in wins over the Chargers and Chiefs. Brady has been great, but running back Sony Michel has been the key to the offense in the postseason. He has 242 yards rushing and has scored five touchdowns.

The Rams had a controversial yet impressive win in New Orleans over the Saints. They fell behind early and then rallied behind the arm of Jared Goff who made some clutch throws in the fourth quarter and in overtime. Todd Gurley enters the Super Bowl as the biggest question mark as he was a non factor in New Orleans. The Rams say he is healthy and recovered from a knee injury, but I have my doubts. Gurley is the key to the Rams play action offense and when healthy is a threat out of the backfield.

New England is 8-4 ATS in their past 12 games and 5-0 SU in the last five games against the Rams. The Rams are 4-1 ATS over their last five games and 15-3 SU in their last 18 games. Tom Brady has not been sacked and only hit once in the playoffs thus far so he is ready mentally and physically for this game.

Rob Gronkowski was targeted over ten times in the AFC Championship and is also healthy. If Todd Gurley was completely healthy I would favor the Rams, but I don’t feel that is the case. Look for Brady to further cement his legacy as the greatest quarterback of all time. I’m taking the Patriots to cover the 2.5 points and win Super Bowl 53.

 

Super Bowl Prop Bets

 

Rob Gronkowski (NE) over 4.5 Receptions (-120)I think Gronk has a huge game and is targeted a ton by Brady. If this is indeed Gronk’s last game I think he goes out with a bang.

 

Josh Reynolds (LA) over 3.5 Receptions (-105)Reynolds has been a key player in the absence of Cooper Kupp. The Patriots will look to take away Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley which will leave plenty of opportunities for Reynolds.
Todd Gurley (LA) Longest Rush under 17.5 (-110) – As you already know, I don’t feel Gurley is healthy and Bill Belichick always does a great job of taking away the other team’s number one option.

 

Shawn Burns is one of the newest content writers for BetQL. As a former staffer for the Jacksonville Jaguars and Director of Football Relations at Florida International University, Burns brings a new perspective and unique handicapping techniques to our readers. You can follow Shawn on Twitter @sburns4597

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