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2019 MLB World Series and Win Total Futures

2019 MLB World Series and Win Total Futures

 

 

The Favorites 

 

Boston Red Sox +650, 96.5 Wins 

Houston Astros +650, 95.5 Wins 

New York Yankees +650, 97.5 Wins 

Los Angeles Dodgers +750, 94.5 Wins 

 

The top-4 in World Series odds are no surprise with the defending champion Boston Red Sox tied with fellow American League rivals; the Houston Astros and New York Yankees at +650. Theoretically you could lay an equal sized bet on each of these these three teams and guarantee profit if one of them win the World Series and that may not be the worst idea given the strength of all of these teams starting lineups and the depth of their pitching staffs. The Yankees likely improved their roster the most in the off season following the acquisitions of All-Star SP James Paxton, SS Troy Tulowitzki, LHP Zach Britton, RHP Adam Ottavino, and RHP Danny Farquhar.

In the National League, the Dodgers are the clear favorites to make their 2nd consecutive trip to the World Series. Los Angeles cleared some cap space by dealing Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp to the Reds and brought in 5-tool OF A.J. Pollock. Los Angeles were unable to re-sign mid-season acquisition SS Manny Machado, but are rumored to be in contention to make a huge splash by signing OF Bryce Harper out from underneath the Phillies. If you think LA can get the Harper deal over the line then jump on the +750 number now because it will likely shoot up if he does sign with them.

 

The Contenders 

 

Chicago Cubs +1200, 90.5 Wins 

Philadelphia Phillies +1200, 88 Wins 

Atlanta Braves +1600, 84.5 Wins 

Cleveland Indians +1600, 91.5 Wins 

Milwaukee Brewers +1600, 85.5 Wins 

Washington Nationals +1600, 89.5 Wins 

St. Louis Cardinals +1800, 87.5 Wins 

 

There’s a clear drop off between the top-4 teams in World Series futures, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t some excellent value on the 7 teams in the +1200 to +1800 range. The Phillies are a team that showed some promise last season and an off season spending spree that could still include OF Bryce Harper has them dreaming of a deep post-season run. However their +1200 is slightly overvalued at this point given they don’t have a top end bullpen and play in a division that is a true three team race with the Braves (+1600) and the Nationals (+1600) also in contention. Speaking of the Braves, I see them as slightly undervalued at +1600 coming off a division title last season. Atlanta has one of the most exciting young rosters in league and added a much needed veteran in 3B Josh Donaldson, who also fills a huge need at the hot corner. Atlanta still has some pitching concerns but keep an eye on young talents Sean Newcomb and Touki Toussaint, both of whom could be primed for breakouts.

The NL Central is another wide open division with the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals likely to make it a three horse race deep into September. St. Louis made a huge offseason splash by picking up 1B Paul Goldschmidt and stud reliever Andrew Miller. The only American League team in this group is the Cleveland Indians who should easily roll to a playoff birth given how bad the rest of the AL Central projects to be. It’s no surprise either that Cleveland has the highest projected win total among this group at 91.5.

 

The Long-shots 

 

New York Mets +2000, 86.5 Wins 

Colorado Rockies +2500, 84 Wins 

Oakland Athletics +3300, 82.5 Wins 

Los Angeles Angels +4000, 85.5 Wins 

Chicago White Sox +5000, 75 Wins 

Minnesota Twins +5000, 84 Wins 

Tampa Bay Rays +5000, 83.5 Wins 

San Diego Padres +5000, 78.5 Wins

 

The long-shot range features a few teams that while not complete dead money, are very unlikely to make a serious run at the World Series. The Mets are projected to be one of the most improved teams in the National League this season following the acquisitions of Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos, and Jed Lowrie, after winning only 77 games in 2018. However, playing in the highly competitive NL East does them no favors and they should rightfully be placed behind the Braves, Phillies, and Nationals. The Oakland A’s were a pleasant surprise in 2018, but it’s going to be hard for them to compete for much more than an AL West title with the roster that they currently have.

 

Maybe Next Year 

 

Arizona Diamondbacks +6600, 75.5  Wins 

Pittsburgh Pirates +6600, 78 Wins 

Cincinnati Reds +8000, 78.5 Wins 

Seattle Mariners +8000, 70.5 Wins 

Toronto Blue Jays +8000, 73.5 Wins 

San Francisco Giants +10000, 74 Wins 

Detroit Tigers +20000, 67.5 Wins 

Texas Rangers, +20000, 71.5 Wins 

Baltimore Orioles +25000, 57.5 Wins 

Kansas City Royals +25000, 67.5 Wins 

Miami Marlins +25000, 64 Wins 

 

Everyone loves a long shot but you’re wasting your money by wagering on any of these teams to win the World Series. It’s hard to see Pittsburgh or Cincinnati passing any of the three teams above them in the NL Central, while the Diamondbacks, Mariners, and Blue Jays simply don’t have the pitching talent to take them far into the playoffs even if they did happen to make a run to the postseason. The six teams in the +10000 range and over are all in rebuilding mode and shouldn’t be in consideration for a World Series future bet, but you are more than welcome to the a stab at some of their win totals. The Orioles have the lowest projected win total in the league at 57.5, which while eye-poppingly low is still 10 more wins than they had in 2018.

 

 

*Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook 

 

There’s plenty of strategy that goes into putting together a winning ticket, and the best place to start is the BetQL Mobile App. Our Trending Picks and Public Betting tools are a massive advantage when you’re making bets, regardless of bankroll size. I’m always there to help, too, so check me out on Twitter (@DFSBenj) for even more NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA daily fantasy content and sports betting content.

 

*All lines, odds, and bettor data are subject to change. The best way to get up to the second lines and betting information is to become a BetQL subscriber.

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